Hey football fans!
Week 5 was a lot of fun, wasn’t it? Last week, I identified four big
games to keep an eye on. All four games went about as I expected with Georgia
and Ohio State winning competitive football games over LSU and Wisconsin, respectively,
while Alabama and Washington won convincingly over Ole Miss and Arizona.
Elsewhere, West Virginia pulled the biggest upset of the weekend by defeating
Oklahoma State 30 – 21 in Morgantown. Oklahoma State was off to a fast start
and was favored by about 20 over the Mountaineers.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 5:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Oregon
|
35.0
|
4 – 0
|
4.8
|
0.12
|
11.4 – 0.6
|
0.48
|
|
2
|
Florida State
|
27.0
|
4 – 0
|
0.2
|
0.18
|
11.0 – 1.0
|
0.24
|
|
3
|
Alabama
|
27.0
|
4 – 0
|
2.3
|
0.14
|
11.2 – 0.8
|
0.29
|
|
4
|
Baylor
|
26.3
|
3 – 0
|
0.7
|
0.25
|
10.9 – 1.1
|
0.30
|
|
5
|
Clemson
|
22.5
|
4 – 0
|
2.9
|
0.13
|
10.4 – 1.6
|
0.10
|
|
6
|
Louisville
|
22.0
|
4 – 0
|
-8.4
|
0.76
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.70
|
|
7
|
LSU
|
21.3
|
4 – 1
|
6.4
|
0.04
|
8.8 – 3.2
|
0.02
|
|
8
|
Georgia
|
21.2
|
3 – 1
|
8.0
|
0.07
|
9.3 – 2.7
|
0.05
|
|
9
|
Washington
|
21.2
|
4 – 0
|
7.0
|
0.04
|
9.3 – 2.7
|
0.01
|
|
10
|
Stanford
|
21.04
|
4 – 0
|
8.01
|
0.06
|
9.5 – 2.5
|
0.02
|
Oklahoma State dropped from #6 to #18 after the big upset and Ohio State
dropped a spot from #10 to #11, meanwhile, Clemson (#11 to #5) and Stanford
(#18 to #10) jumped into the top 10 after big victories over Wake Forest and
Washington State, respectively. Otherwise, the rankings look pretty much the
same with Oregon holding steady at the top.
Here are the top 10 teams with the best chance of finishing undefeated:
|
P(WARG) Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
6
|
Louisville
|
0.700
|
|
2
|
1
|
Oregon
|
0.475
|
|
3
|
4
|
Baylor
|
0.300
|
|
4
|
3
|
Alabama
|
0.292
|
|
5
|
2
|
Florida State
|
0.236
|
|
6
|
11
|
Ohio State
|
0.208
|
|
7
|
64
|
Northern Illinois
|
0.142
|
|
8
|
5
|
Clemson
|
0.097
|
|
9
|
51
|
Fresno State
|
0.097
|
|
10
|
13
|
Oklahoma
|
0.024
|
The top five remain the same from last week. Oregon, Baylor, Alabama and
Florida State are the top contenders and Louisville has a chance to make things
interesting if they finish undefeated. Of course, they play a far weaker schedule
than the other four and will need to do something spectacular to make people
take notice. Finally, Ohio State made a big move even though they dropped a
spot in the rankings. Wisconsin was their toughest regular season opponent and
they doubled their chances of finishing undefeated with a victory over the
Badgers.
The game of the week for Week 6 is Washington at Stanford. These two
teams are about as close as you can get and illustrates the value of home-field
advantage. Their ratings are only .13 apart but Stanford is favored by 3.4 and
has a 60% chance of winning. Week 6 also brings us two more top-25 matchups and
one more which just missed. Here is a run-down:
- #9 (in my rankings) Washington @ #10 Stanford, Stanford favored by 3.4, 60% chance of winning
- #7 LSU @ #21 Mississippi State, LSU favored by 2.5, 57% chance of winning
- #25 Georgia Tech @ #22 Miami, Miami favored by 5.7, 67% chance of winning
- #26 TCU @ #13 Oklahoma, Oklahoma favored by 9.9, 77% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 6!
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