Thursday, November 21, 2013

Week 12 Rankings



Hey football fans!

Last weekend featured a lighter schedule of big games compared to week 11. The four remaining unbeaten title contenders, Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor, won comfortably over overmatched opponents. Elsewhere, Stanford was upset by USC in a game that I pegged as closer than most people expected and Auburn defeated Georgia with a last-second miracle.

Here are the updated top 10 after week 12:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

SOS1

SOS2

E(FR)

P(WARG)
1
Florida State
38.5
10 – 0
-1.6
0.26
11.9 – 0.1
0.941
2
Baylor
33.1
9 – 0
0.9
0.23
11.7 – 0.3
0.711
3
Oregon
32.9
9 – 1
3.1
0.17
10.9 – 1.1
0.728
4
Alabama
30.4
10 – 0
2.2
0.14
11.8 – 0.2
0.604
5
Ohio State
25.8
10 – 0
-0.8
0.36
11.8 – 0.2
0.633
6
Wisconsin
24.4
8 – 2
1.5
0.10
9.9 – 2.1
0.864
7
Clemson
22.7
9 – 1
2.0
0.07
10.6 – 1.4
0.547
8
Arizona State
22.7
8 – 2
8.1
0.07
9.5 – 2.5
0.130
9
Missouri
22.1
8 – 1
4.7
0.16
10.3 – 1.7
0.120
10
Stanford
21.5
8 – 2
8.2
0.05
9.9 – 2.1
0.831

The top ten remain the same, albeit in a slight different order, after a rather uneventful weekend. Florida State is approaching the best rating I’ve seen in the eight years that I’ve been ranking college football teams. It is hard to get a handle on just how good they are because they’ve played a much weaker schedule than the other title contenders but, for some context, their closest victory was by 14 over Boston College and seven of their ten victories have been by 30 or more. Impressive!

Here are the top 14 teams in the current BCS standings and the probability that they win all of their remaining games:


BCS Rank

Rank

Team

P(WARG)
1
4
Alabama
0.604
2
1
Florida State
0.941
3
5
Ohio State
0.633
4
2
Baylor
0.711
5
3
Oregon
0.728
6
15
Auburn
0.158
7
7
Clemson
0.547
8
9
Missouri
0.120
9
10
Stanford
0.831
10
11
Oklahoma State
0.172
11
14
South Carolina
0.328
12
13
Texas A&M
0.137
13
21
Michigan State
0.129
14
19
UCLA
0.072

At this point, the top four are all more likely to finish undefeated than not and there is a 69% chance that three or more finish undefeated. At this point, it is a near certainty that Florida State will finish undefeated but it will be interested to see who of the other three finish the season unscathed.

It will be a light weekend for Alabama, Florida State and Ohio State, while Baylor faces another tough test against Oklahoma State. I have the Bears favored by about 10 and a victory over the Cowboys might be enough to push them past Ohio State in the BCS standings. There are several other top-25 matchups, including two big ones in the Sec. Here is a little more information:

  • #2 (in my rankings) Baylor @ #11 Oklahoma State, Baylor favored by 9.5, 76% chance of winning 
  • #8 Arizona State @ #19 UCLA, Arizona State favored by 4.1, 62% chance of winning 
  • #9 Missouri @ #23 Mississippi, Missouri favored by 4.6, 64% chance of winning 
  • #13 Texas A&M @ #12 LSU, LSU favored by 3.65, 61% chance of winning

As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:


Enjoy the week 13!


Friday, November 15, 2013

Week 11 Rankings



Hey football fans! I can’t believe there are only four weeks left in the season! Crunch time!

Last weekend was put-up or shut-up time for three title contenders. Baylor and Alabama passed their tests with victories over Oklahoma and LSU, respectively, while Oregon suffered their first loss of the season to Stanford. It is probably a bit strong to say that Oregon has been eliminated from title contention but they will definitely need some help and are no longer a lock to be invited to a BCS game.

Here are the updated top 10 after week 11:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

SOS1

SOS2

E(FR)

P(WARG)
1
Florida State
37.0
9 – 0
-1.8
0.28
11.9 – 0.1
0.916
2
Oregon
33.0
8 – 1
3.2
0.16
10.9 – 1.1
0.763
3
Baylor
33.0
8 – 0
1.0
0.24
11.7 – 0.3
0.711
4
Alabama
31.1
9 – 0
2.2
0.14
11.7 – 0.3
0.583
5
Ohio State
25.8
9 – 0
-0.6
0.39
11.8 – 0.2
0.635
6
Arizona State
22.4
7 – 2
7.8
0.08
9.3 – 2.7
0.151
7
Missouri
22.3
9 – 1
4.9
0.16
10.3 – 1.7
0.113
8
Wisconsin
22.2
7 – 2
1.8
0.11
9.8 – 2.2
0.749
9
Stanford
22.0
8 – 1
8.4
0.06
10.5 – 1.5
0.375
10
Clemson
21.4
8 – 1
2.0
0.08
10.3 – 1.7
0.378

The gap between Florida State and everyone else is wider than ever thanks to the Ducks loss against Stanford. Some might find it a bit unsettling that Oregon didn’t drop from #2 but it is worth pointing out that they lost a full 2 points off their rating, which is a big drop this late in the season. LSU was the only team to drop out of the top 10 (down to #11), with Stanford taking their place after last week’s impressive victory.

Here are the top 14 teams in the current BCS standings and the probability that they win all of their remaining games:


BCS Rank

Rank

Team

P(WARG)
1
4
Alabama
0.583
2
1
Florida State
0.916
3
5
Ohio State
0.635
4
9
Stanford
0.375
5
3
Baylor
0.711
6
2
Oregon
0.763
7
17
Auburn
0.072
8
10
Clemson
0.378
9
7
Missouri
0.113
10
14
South Carolina
0.278
11
12
Texas A&M
0.137
12
13
Oklahoma State
0.081
13
20
UCLA
0.031
14
44
Fresno State
0.338

It is now clear that Florida State will play Alabama if they both finish the season undefeated. Florida State is in excellent shape, with a 92% chance of finishing undefeated, but the Tide still have some work to do and have a 42% chance of losing at least one of their last few games. There seems to be a consensus among fans and the media that Alabama and Florida State are the top two teams in the country. This is likely to limit the controversy if more than two AQ conference teams finish undefeated (there is currently a 68% chance that this will happen) but it is worth pointing out that I actually have Baylor ranked ahead of Alabama. The Bears haven’t received much respect up to this point but that should change with a tough closing stretch against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas.

The four major undefeated title contenders have relatively easy games this week (at least compared to last week) but Stanford plays a sneaky-difficult game against USC. The Trojans dropped off the radar when Lane Kiffin was fired but have put together a decent season and could give Stanford a test. There are several other top-25 match-ups that don’t have title implications but will help sort out the picture for the second-tier bowl games. Here is a little more information:

  • #9 (in my rankings) Stanford @ #19 USC, Stanford favored by 3.4, 60% chance of winning 
  • #13 Oklahoma State @ #25 Texas, Oklahoma State favored by 1.8, 55% chance of winning
  •  #15 Washington @ #20 UCLA, Washington favored by 0.5, 52% chance of winning 
  • #16 Georgia @ #17 Auburn, Auburn favored by 2.5, 58% chance of winning


As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:


Enjoy the week 12!