Hey football fans. It’s almost bowl season! You know, that time of year where we celebrate the history and tradition of college football by watching 70 of the best college football teams in the land duke it out for the right to say that they are the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl or Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas Champion. What would we do without corporate sponsors?
Before we get to the bowls, let’s first take a look at my top ten after the last weekend of the regular season:
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | SOS1 | SOS2 |
| 1 | LSU | 31.12 | 13-0 | 6.66 | 0.019 |
| 2 | Alabama | 28.08 | 11-1 | 3.77 | 0.048 |
| 3 | Oklahoma State | 27.32 | 11-1 | 7.07 | 0.061 |
| 4 | Oregon | 25.80 | 11-2 | 5.19 | 0.031 |
| 5 | Stanford | 25.32 | 11-1 | 4.81 | 0.082 |
| 6 | Wisconsin | 24.94 | 11-2 | 0.45 | 0.124 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 24.07 | 9-3 | 6.53 | 0.060 |
| 8 | Boise State | 20.25 | 11-1 | -3.88 | 0.393 |
| 9 | Florida State | 17.74 | 8-4 | 1.10 | 0.208 |
| 10 | USC | 17.71 | 10-2 | 6.03 | 0.074 |
The top 10 remain the same but the order is slightly different. Oklahoma State made the biggest move after their victory over Oklahoma. There was a lot of controversy surrounding the decision to include Alabama in the BCS Championship game over Oklahoma State but, as you can see, the teams were pretty even. I would have preferred to see Oklahoma State get a shot at LSU but this is hardly the greatest injustice of the BCS era. USC is, of course, the only team in the top 10 (top 70?) not playing in a bowl game because of probation. I’ve read several stories predicting them as a national title contender next season but that assumes Matt Barkley will return for his senior year and that is hardly a given.
Below you can find my bowl preview, which includes the favorite, predicted line and probability of an upset in each bowl. The table pretty much speaks for itself but I do want to point out a few things:
- I have LSU favored by 3 in the national title game but this does not include the home field advantage that they will have because the game is played in New Orleans
- The BCS games are even matchups, for the most part, but it’s funny to see that the BCS game I’m predicting to be the closest is the game that people are least likely to watch (Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Clemson)
- I’m amazed that regional companies like Belk or Beef ‘O’ Brady’s have enough money to sponsor a bowl… it must be cheaper than I thought. I think bowl naming rights would make an excellent Christmas gift. Who wouldn’t watch the Joe Koopmeiners Bowl?
| Bowl | Favorite | Underdog | Line | P(Upset) | Date |
| BCS Championship Game | LSU | Alabama | 3.04 | 0.416 | 1/9/12 |
| Orange Bowl | West Virginia | Clemson | 0.3 | 0.492 | 1/4/12 |
| Sugar Bowl | Michigan | Virginia Tech | 5.71 | 0.346 | 1/3/12 |
| Fiesta Bowl | Oklahoma State | Stanford | 2 | 0.445 | 1/2/12 |
| Rose Bowl | Oregon | Wisconsin | 0.86 | 0.476 | 1/2/12 |
| Cotton Bowl | Arkansas | Kansas State | 10.02 | 0.243 | 1/6/12 |
| Gator Bowl | Ohio State | Florida | 0.25 | 0.493 | 1/2/12 |
| Capital One Bowl | South Carolina | Nebraska | 2.25 | 0.438 | 1/2/12 |
| Outback Bowl | Georgia | Michigan State | 0.43 | 0.488 | 1/2/12 |
| GoDaddy.com Bowl | Northern Illinois | Arkansas State | 1.6 | 0.456 | 1/8/12 |
| BBVA Compass Bowl | Pittsburgh | SMU | 7.36 | 0.305 | 1/7/12 |
| TicketCity Bowl | Houston | Penn State | 7.05 | 0.312 | 1/2/12 |
| Chick-fil-A Bowl | Auburn | Virginia | 3.44 | 0.406 | 12/31/11 |
| Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl | Illinois | UCLA | 4.76 | 0.371 | 12/31/11 |
| Liberty Bowl | Cincinnati | Vanderbilt | 3.09 | 0.415 | 12/31/11 |
| Sun Bowl | Utah | Georgia Tech | 1.21 | 0.467 | 12/31/11 |
| Meineke Car Care Bowl | Texas A&M | Northwestern | 14.54 | 0.156 | 12/31/11 |
| Insight Bowl | Oklahoma | Iowa | 17.49 | 0.112 | 12/30/11 |
| Music City Bowl | Mississippi State | Wake Forest | 9.73 | 0.25 | 12/30/11 |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Rutgers | Iowa State | 4.13 | 0.387 | 12/30/11 |
| Armed Forces Bowl | BYU | Tulsa | 2.14 | 0.441 | 12/30/11 |
| Alamo Bowl | Baylor | Washington | 7.52 | 0.301 | 12/29/11 |
| Champs Sports Bowl | Florida State | Notre Dame | 1.17 | 0.468 | 12/29/11 |
| Holiday Bowl | Texas | California | 4.12 | 0.387 | 12/28/11 |
| Military Bowl | Toledo | Air Force | 3.15 | 0.413 | 12/28/11 |
| Belk Bowl | North Carolina State | Louisville | 0.4 | 0.489 | 12/27/11 |
| Little Ceasers Bowl | Purdue | Western Michigan | 1.67 | 0.454 | 12/27/11 |
| Independence Bowl | Missouri | North Carolina | 8.52 | 0.277 | 12/26/11 |
| Hawaii Bowl | Southern Mississippi | Nevada | 7.03 | 0.313 | 12/24/11 |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Boise State | Arizona State | 8.86 | 0.269 | 12/22/11 |
| Poinsettia Bowl | TCU | Louisiana Tech | 14.74 | 0.153 | 12/21/11 |
| Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl | Florida International | Marshall | 3.98 | 0.391 | 12/20/11 |
| New Orleans Bowl | San Diego State | Louisiana-Lafayette | 9.44 | 0.256 | 12/17/11 |
| Idaho Potato Bowl | Ohio | Utah State | 1.69 | 0.453 | 12/17/11 |
| New Mexico Bowl | Temple | Wyoming | 12.32 | 0.196 | 12/17/11 |
As always, the full ranking can be found at my personal website: www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk14_rankings_2011.pdf
