Hey football fans!
Week 4 was a slow weekend that will prove to be the calm before the week
5 storm. Stanford posted the most impressive victory of the weekend with a
42-28 victory over Arizona State that wasn’t as close as the final score would
indicate. Otherwise, there weren’t any other major results of note.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 4:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Oregon
|
37.1
|
3-0
|
5.1
|
0.153
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.673
|
|
2
|
Florida State
|
29.8
|
3-0
|
-0.3
|
0.244
|
11.3 – 0.7
|
0.411
|
|
3
|
Baylor
|
26.6
|
3-0
|
0.1
|
0.218
|
11.0 – 1.0
|
0.283
|
|
4
|
Alabama
|
24.5
|
3-0
|
2.3
|
0.155
|
10.8 – 1.2
|
0.166
|
|
5
|
Louisville
|
22.3
|
4-0
|
-8.0
|
0.785
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.738
|
|
6
|
Oklahoma State
|
21.9
|
3-0
|
3.8
|
0.188
|
10.4 – 1.6
|
0.144
|
|
7
|
Georgia
|
20.7
|
2-1
|
8.6
|
0.072
|
8.6 – 3.4
|
0.019
|
|
8
|
LSU
|
20.6
|
4-0
|
6.1
|
0.042
|
9.0 – 3.0
|
0.006
|
|
9
|
Washington
|
19.9
|
3-0
|
6.8
|
0.044
|
9.1 – 2.9
|
0.005
|
|
10
|
Ohio State
|
19.1
|
4-0
|
0.1
|
0.372
|
10.3 – 1.7
|
0.106
|
The rankings look pretty similar to last week with the exception of
Louisville and Ohio State, who both made big jumps after posting one-sided
victories in week 4. Alabama continues to slip after a posting a solid but not dominating
victory over Colorado State. Baylor is probably the largest discrepancy between
my rankings and the major polls. The Bears have posted huge victories over very
week competition and it will be interesting to see how they do once conference
play starts. It’s tempting to assume that my rankings are giving too much
weight to early-season blowouts but Texas A&M did the same thing last year
and turned out to be as good as advertised.
Here are the top 10 teams with the best chance of finishing undefeated:
|
P(WARG) Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
5
|
Louisville
|
0.738
|
|
2
|
1
|
Oregon
|
0.673
|
|
3
|
2
|
Florida State
|
0.411
|
|
4
|
3
|
Baylor
|
0.283
|
|
5
|
4
|
Alabama
|
0.166
|
|
6
|
6
|
Oklahoma State
|
0.144
|
|
7
|
10
|
Ohio State
|
0.106
|
|
8
|
50
|
Fresno State
|
0.088
|
|
9
|
11
|
Clemson
|
0.023
|
|
10
|
74
|
Northern Illinois
|
0.016
|
Four weeks into the season and we’re starting to identify the
contenders. It will be interesting to see what the voters would do with
Louisville if they finish undefeated. They’ve looked impressive and Teddy
Bridgewater is a legitimate Heisman candidate but they play an incredibly week
schedule that should hurt them, in the end. Oregon looks like the favorite but
Florida State and Baylor are in good shape. Alabama’s chances don’t look quite
as good as they did last week after a lackluster effort against Colorado State.
Finally, LSU and Washington are notably absent from this ranking. They’re both
ranked in the top 9 in my rankings but play very difficult schedules and have
less than a 1% chance of finishing undefeated.
Week 5 is going to be a huge weekend with four matchups between teams
currently ranked in my top 25 and that doesn’t even include potentially
interesting matchups Arizona State vs. USC, Oklahoma vs. Notre Dame and Georgia
Tech vs. Virginia Tech. here is a quick run-down:
- #14 (in my rankings) Mississippi @ #4 Alabama, Alabama favored by 9.5, 78% chance of winning
- #8 LSU @ #7 Georgia, Georgia favored by 3.8, 62% chance of winning
- #25 Arizona @ #9 Washington, Washington favored by 10.1, 79% chance of winning
- #13 Wisconsin @ #10 Ohio State, Ohio State favored by 4.0, 63% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 5!
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