Bowl Preview

Hey football fans! The bowl season starts tomorrow. I better get my bowl preview out before it’s too late!

Below you will find basic information for each bowl including: name (I didn’t have room for all of the wacky sponsors, sorry), favorite, underdog, line based on the current version of my rankings, probability of an upset and date for the game.   

That’s an awful lot of information and, to help you out, I thought I would summarize a few interesting points:

• I’m sure you’re all interested in what I have to say about the National Championship Game. The rankings have not been a fan of Auburn all season and, not surprisingly, I have Oregon as a ten point favorite over Auburn. The national perception is that the Pac 10 did not have a good year but my rankings have the strength of the Pac 10 as nearly equal to the strength of the SEC. Combine that with the fact that Oregon didn’t play many close games, compared to Auburn, who had several close calls, and you can see why my rankings have Oregon as the solid favorite.
• There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for this year’s BCS match-ups but the rankings do not see these games being as competitive as last year. Oregon and Oklahoma are favored by ten and fourteen points, respectively, and only the Rose Bowl has a line of less than five (TCU by 4.76). In contrast, none of last year’s games had a ten point spread (the Sugar Bowl was close at 9.74), three of the games had smaller spread than this year’s Rose Bowl and two were expected to be closer than a field goal.
• A lower-tier bowl that’s drawing a lot of attention is the Las Vegas Bowl, which features Boise State and Utah. Boise and Utah have been the strongest non-BCS conference teams of the BCS era. Both team’s regular seasons ended in disappointment. It will be interesting to see who rebounds for a good bowl showing. The rankings think it will be the Broncos by fourteen.
• Presented without comment: this year, there are 35 bowls, meaning that 70 of the 120 Bowl subdivision teams are above average.
• The title sponsors get wackier every year. Last year, my favorite was easily the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s St. Petersburg Bowl. Beef ‘O’ Brady’s is back but there are several other great options this season. The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl is a classic (AdvoCare V100 is a diet supplement) and the BBVA Compass Bowl is pretty good too (until year realize that BBVA Compass is a holding company and not a compass manufacturer), but the title of best sponsor is clearly a dogfight between the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl and the Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman. (Do I lose points for the bad pun?)

Happy Holidays! Enjoy the bowl season!

Bowl	Favorite	Underdog	Line	P(Upset)	Date
BCS National Championship Game	Oregon	Auburn	10.02	0.244	1/10/11
Sugar Bowl	Ohio State	Arkansas	6.53	0.326	1/4/11
Orange Bowl	Stanford	Virginia Tech	8.22	0.285	1/3/11
Fiesta Bowl	Oklahoma	Connecticut	14.08	0.165	1/1/11
Rose Bowl	TCU	Wisconsin	4.76	0.371	1/1/11
Cotton Bowl	LSU	Texas A&M	2.02	0.444	1/7/11
Capital One Bowl	Alabama	Michigan State	14.23	0.162	1/1/11
Gator Bowl	Mississippi State	Michigan	4.28	0.384	1/1/11
Outback Bowl	Florida	Penn State	8.65	0.275	1/1/11
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl	Nevada	Boston College	8.47	0.279	1/9/11
BBVA Compass Bowl	Pittsburgh	Kentucky	7.39	0.305	1/8/11
GoDaddy.com Bowl	Middle Tennessee State	Miami (Ohio)	0.22	0.494	1/6/11
TicketCity Bowl	Texas Tech	Northwestern	6.92	0.316	1/1/11
Chick-fil-A Bowl	Florida State	South Carolina	2.68	0.426	12/31/10
Liberty Bowl	Georgia	Central Florida	9.81	0.249	12/31/10
Sun Bowl	Miami (Fla.)	Notre Dame	4.33	0.382	12/31/10
Meineke Car Care Bowl	Clemson	South Florida	6.65	0.323	12/31/10
Holiday Bowl	Nebraska	Washington	14.04	0.166	12/30/10
Music City Bowl	North Carolina	Tennessee	2.64	0.428	12/30/10
Pinstripe Bowl	Kansas State	Syracuse	4.76	0.371	12/30/10
Armed Forces Bowl	SMU	Army	3.27	0.41	12/30/10
Alamo Bowl	Oklahoma State	Arizona	2.53	0.431	12/29/10
Texas Bowl	Illinois	Baylor	3.44	0.406	12/29/10
Military Bowl	Maryland	East Carolina	14.12	0.164	12/29/10
Insight Bowl	Missouri	Iowa	0.44	0.488	12/28/10
Champs Sports Bowl	West Virginia	North Carolina State	2.29	0.437	12/28/10
Independence Bowl	Air Force	Georgia Tech	1.73	0.452	12/27/10
Little Ceasers Bowl	Toledo	Florida International	1.02	0.472	12/26/10
Hawaii Bowl	Hawaii	Tulsa	6.96	0.315	12/24/10
Poinsettia Bowl	Navy	San Diego State	2.17	0.44	12/23/10
Las Vegas Bowl	Boise State	Utah	14.67	0.155	12/22/10
St. Petersburg Bowl	Louisville	Southern Mississippi	2.79	0.423	12/21/10
New Orleans Bowl	Troy	Ohio	0.04	0.499	12/18/10
Humanitarian Bowl	Northern Illinois	Fresno State	6.35	0.33	12/18/10
New Mexico Bowl	BYU	UTEP	14.71	0.154	12/18/10

Full week 14 rankings can be found at my personal website:

www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk14_ranking_report.pdf

Week 13 rankings

Now THAT is what a great weekend of college football looks like! Well, not if you live in Boise but the point still stands. The dream is dead for the Boise State Broncos, who lost an overtime heartbreaker 34-31 to Nevada. You’d have to be made of stone not to feel bad for Kyle Brotzman. He missed a 26 yard field goal as time expired that would have won the game and a 29 yard field goal in overtime that gave Nevada the win. Boise’s loss was TCU’s gain as the Horned Frogs are in the clubhouse at 12-0 and are currently in third place in the BCS standings. Of course, it won’t matter if Oregon and Auburn can win one more game each. Auburn came back from down 24 to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl, while Oregon remained undefeated by defeating Arizona 48-29.

TCU’s regular season is complete, which means that the only two meaningful games this weekend are the Civil War, Oregon @ Oregon State, and the SEC Championship Game, Auburn vs. South Carolina. Oregon is a 17 point favorite over Oregon State and has a 90% chance of winning the game. A lot of people would disagree but my rankings only have Auburn favored by about a point and a half, which gives them a 55% chance of winning the game. Of course, it might not matter if Auburn loses because there’s a decent chance that they would play in the National Title game over TCU even if they lose to South Carolina. All hell would break loose if Auburn and Oregon both lose but there is less than a 5% chance of that happening.

Saturday should be fun – I can’t wait to watch!

Full week 13 rankings can be found at my personal website:

www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk13_ranking_report.pdf

Week 12 Ranking

Hey football fans! We’re getting down to crunch time. Only two weeks remaining to sort out the national championship picture. Last weekend was about as uneventful as a college football Saturday can be in November. Luckily, that won’t be the case this weekend. I don’t know about you but I plan on enjoying some Turkey on Thursday and camping out in front of the TV on Friday.

I’m going to break from my normal routine and focus on the remaining schedules for the four teams that still have a shot at playing for the national title: Oregon, Auburn, TCU and Boise State. Presented are their remaining schedule, predicted line for each game (from my rankings), probability of winning each game and probability of winning all remaining games.

TCU, P(WARG) = ~1.0

Opponent	Line	P(victory)
@ New Mexico	49.73	~1.0

It doesn’t get much easier than that. TCU is a 50 point favorite against New Mexico. A New Mexico victory would be one of the biggest upsets in college football history.

Boise State, P(WARG) = 0.888

Opponent	Line	P(victory)
@ Nevada	17.95	0.892
vs. Utah St.	46.81	0.999

Boise State has more work to do than TCU but not by much. A lot of people think Nevada will give them a game but Boise State is still favored by almost 20. What I wrote about New Mexico beating TCU also applies to a potential Utah State upset over Boise State.

Oregon, P(WARG) = 0.787

Opponent	Line	P(victory)
vs. Arizona	20.38	0.920
@ Oregon St. (Civil War)	15.61	0.859

Oregon finishes the season with two solid opponents but are solid favorites in both games. You’re probably a little surprised to see Oregon favored by 20 over Arizona but only 16 over Oregon State. This is mostly due to home field advantage (Arizona is ranked one spot ahead of Oregon State) but it’s also worth noting that Oregon State is much better than their record suggests. Oregon State has the most difficult schedule in the country that includes four of the top six teams in the country (Oregon, Boise State, TCU and Stanford) and several of their losses have been close. Oregon State is not a top ten team but the Civil War will be a test for Oregon.

Auburn, P(WARG) = 0.145

Opponent	Line	P(victory)
@ Alabama (Iron Bowl)	-9.66	0.253
vs. South Carolina (SEC Championship)	2.20	0.560

 

The last two weeks are going to be tough sledding for the Auburn Tigers. They are a ten point underdog against Alabama and are only favored by two against South Carolina. The only advantage Auburn has is that they might still play for the national title even if they lose to Alabama on Friday. Of course, there’s also a 33% chance that they lose both games, which would drop them out of the BCS entirely.

Full week 12 rankings can be found at my personal website:

www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk12_ranking_report.pdf

Week 11 Rankings

Hey football fans. Miss a couple of weeks and I start getting threatening emails! At least I know people are reading!

A lot has changed since I left you. What? Nothing changed? Oh. Good to know. Okay, that’s not totally true but the top of my rankings, as well as the BCS rankings, are the same as three weeks ago. My top five, Oregon, Boise State, TCU, Alabama and Ohio State, are the same as three weeks ago. Stanford moves up to #6 from #14 three weeks ago. The Tree are 9-1 with only The Big Game (against Cal) and Oregon State remaining on their schedule. Unfortunately, there’s a good chance Stanford will get left out of a BCS bowl even if they finish 11-1. Stanford can blame their fans if they get snubbed. There were 7000 empty seats (in a 50000 seat stadium) two weeks ago when Stanford played Arizona. You can do better, Stanford. Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Auburn and Arkansas round out my top 10. Utah had the biggest drop from three weeks ago (from #6 to #23) thanks to consecutive blowout losses to TCU and Notre Dame.

Here are the top 14 teams in the BCS rankings and the probability that they win all of their remaining games:

BCS Rank	Rank	Team	P(WARG)*
1	1	Oregon	0.827
2	9	Auburn	0.152
3	3	TCU	~1.0
4	2	Boise State	0.855
5	11	LSU	0.324
6	6	Stanford	0.537
7	8	Wisconsin	0.707
8	15	Nebraska	0.252
9	5	Ohio State	0.586
10	20	Oklahoma State	0.196
11	4	Alabama	0.739
12	29	Michigan State	0.510
13	10	Arkansas	0.394
14	7	Oklahoma	0.365

*P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.

The only remaining question is whether or not a one-loss Auburn or Oregon would play in the BCS national title game over an undefeated Boise State or TCU and, if you believe the rankings, there’s a good chance we’ll find out. Oregon has an 83% chance of winning their remaining games but Auburn has only a 15% chance of finishing the season undefeated. This is mostly due to Auburn’s day-after-Thanksgiving matchup with Alabama in the Iron Bowl. The rankings haven’t been kind to Auburn and have Alabama as a 10 point favorite in Tuscaloosa. If that’s not bad enough, the rankings have Auburn as only a 3 point favorite against South Carolina in the SEC championship game. There’s no doubt that Auburn will have earned it if they finish the season undefeated. TCU and Boise State are virtual locks to finish the season undefeated. TCU has one game remaining and it would be a historical upset if they were to lose. Boise State has three game remaining, including a tough game against Nevada, but still have an 86% chance of finishing undefeated. I can’t envision a scenario where any other team ends up in the national title game. The best case scenario for LSU is a to finish as a one-loss division runner-up to Auburn and Stanford needs to win out and have Oregon lose twice in order to win the Pac 10. The only way I could see either of these teams entering the conversation is if Oregon and Auburn both lose twice and the voters are uncomfortable with a Boise State/TCU national title game.  That’s not going to happen.

Full week 11 rankings can be found at my personal website:

www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk11_ranking_report.pdf

Week 8 Rankings

Down goes #1… again. The number #1 ranked team in the nation lost for the third week in a row. Although, there weren’t many people that actually thought that Oklahoma was the best team in the country (I had them ranked #5) and my rankings had Oklahoma favored by only 1.5 points in Columbia. Auburn gets their chance as the new BCS number 1 after defeating previously unbeaten LSU, 24-17. The streak should end this week as Auburn faces Mississippi. The Rebels aren’t on the same level as South Carolina, Wisconsin or Missouri. Speaking of Mississippi, Houston Nutt has to be a little disappointed in his return on investment after recruiting frequent resident of the back seat of a police car, Jeremiah Masoli. Oh well, at least Mississippi has a cool new mascot:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5684400

The only new additions to the top 10 are Utah, who beat Colorado State 59-6, and Miami, who posted a 33-10 victory over North Carolina. Stanford and Iowa dropped out of the top 10, dropping to #14 and #11, respectively. Stanford was penalized for allowing Washington State to keep it close. The Cougars have improved quite a bit from last year even though they’re ranked #94. This illustrates just how bad they were in 2008 and 2009 when they were one of the worst teams in the country. This year, they’re not even the worst team in a BCS conference thanks to Turner Gill’s Kansas Jayhawks. I doubt that makes Cougar fans feel any better but I’m a Washington alum and don’t care.

Here are the top 14 teams in the BCS rankings and the probability that they win all of their remaining games:

BCS Rank	Rank	Team	P(WARG)*
1	15	Auburn	0.059
2	1	Oregon	0.449
3	2	Boise State	0.830
4	3	TCU	0.538
5	26	Michigan State	0.152
6	13	Missouri	0.123
7	4	Alabama	0.386
8	6	Utah	0.214
9	7	Oklahoma	0.166
10	18	Wisconsin	0.546
11	5	Ohio State	0.466
12	20	LSU	0.087
13	14	Stanford	0.125
14	8	Nebraska	0.266

*P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.

We’re down to seven undefeated teams and only four from BCS conferences. Believe it or not but Auburn has the worst chance of finishing the season undefeated among the seven unbeatens. They’ll be solid favorites in their next three games but finish the season with Alabama and (potentially) the SEC championship game. Oregon has tough games remaining against USC, Arizona and Oregon State but still has a 45% chance of finishing the season undefeated. I’ve always assumed that Michigan State would lose a game before all was said and done but they only have four games remaining and three of those games are against Purdue, Minnesota and Penn State. Michigan State has a very real chance of running the table if they beat Iowa on Saturday. Ditto for Missouri. Their only remaining test during the regular season is Saturday’s game at Nebraska. Although, they would also have to win the Big 12 title game, likely against Oklahoma, to finish undefeated. Finally, Boise State and the TCU/Utah winner are likely to finish the season undefeated (83% and 75%, respectively) but need some help if they want to play for the national title. Missouri and Michigan State are likely to lose before the end of the season but Boise State/TCU/Utah need the SEC champ to have more than one loss in order to have a shot. That could be tough given that three teams in the SEC West have one loss or less (Alabama, Auburn and LSU) and the relative weakness of the SEC East.

Full week 8 rankings can be found at my personal website:

www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk8_ranking_report.pdf

Week 7 Rankings

Hey college football fans! Week 7 is behind us and you know what that means? Yep, the first BCS rankings of the season are out. I, for one, am pumped to hear about the grave injustices of the BCS instead of all the complaining about trivial issues like health care and the economy.

Wisconsin knocked off previously undefeated Ohio State, 31-18, in the biggest game of the weekend. Nebraska and Nevada also dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten with losses to Texas and Hawaii, respectively. The most surprising result of the weekend, though, was probably Auburn’s 65-43 victory over Arkansas. Yep, you read that right, 65-43. Cam Newton single handedly set SEC defenses back decades in one weekend (not to mention making himself a leading Heisman candidate). It will be fun to see if he can keep it up!

There was very little change in the top 10 from last week. The order changed a little but only Utah dropped out of the top 10 (to #11), while Iowa was the only team to enter the top 10 (moving up from #12). Oregon remains #1 but #2 Boise State is now a full field goal ahead of #3 TCU.

Here are the top 14 teams in the BCS rankings and the probability that they win all of their remaining games:

BCS Rank	Rank	Team	P(WARG)*
1	5	Oklahoma	0.128
2	1	Oregon	0.409
3	2	Boise State	0.849
4	14	Auburn	0.044
5	3	TCU	0.517
6	17	LSU	0.034
7	27	Michigan State	0.116
8	4	Alabama	0.291
9	11	Utah	0.128
10	6	Ohio State	0.385
11	13	Missouri	0.048
12	7	Stanford	0.229
13	21	Wisconsin	0.159
14	26	Oklahoma State	0.014

* P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.

Don’t get too attached to/upset about this week’s BCS rankings. As you can see from column four, there will be plenty of changes before the end of the season. Boise State is the only team that we can say is likely to win all of their remaining games (85% chance) and there is a good chance that the Mountain West champion will finish the season undefeated (65% chance). Of course, there is virtually no chance that they will meet in the national title game even if they are the only undefeated teams remaining at the end of the season. Oregon has the best chance of finishing the season undefeated among BCS conference teams (41%). No other BCS conference team has more than a 13% chance of finishing the season undefeated. Finally, Alabama is an interesting team at #8 in the BCS rankings. They have a 29% chance of winning all of their remaining games and would likely move up considerably as the teams ranked ahead of them lose. It would be surprising if Alabama didn’t end up in the National Championship game if they finish the season 12-1.

Full week 7 rankings can be found at my personal website:

www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk7_ranking_report.pdf

Week 6 Rankings

Hey college football fans! It’s that time of year again. The leaves are changing, conference play has begun and the first BCS rankings come out on Sunday! Okay, only two of those are a good thing. I’ll leave it for you to decide which two I’m referring too!

Last weekend brought us the first set of big conference matchups. The biggest story was South Carolina’s 35-21 victory over Alabama. This makes it very unlikely that the SEC champion will finish the season undefeated. The SEC has garnered a lot of respect over the last few seasons and it will be interesting to see how the BCS rankings treat a one-loss SEC champion. The two remaining SEC unbeatens, Auburn and LSU, posted victories over Kentucky and Florida, respectively. The second most impressive victory of the weekend was turned in by Florida State, who put a whoopin’ on Miami, 45-17. The rankings have been optimistic about Florida State all season but this was definitely a surprise. Finally, Michigan State dealt Michigan their first loss of the season, 34 – 17. Somewhere, University of Washington biostatistics graduate student and Michigan alum Peter Chi was crying.

The Florida State/Miami game actually had a larger effect on the rankings than the South Carolina/Alabama game. Alabama only dropped one spot to #3. Some might find this hard to swallow but remember, I’m trying to identify the best team in the country and not trying to reward teams for a good season. Would you really bet on South Carolina over Alabama if they played a rematch? Yeah, I wouldn’t either. Florida State and Miami essentially flip-flopped this week. Last week, Miami was ranked #6 and Florida State was ranked #13. This week, Florida State is ranked #7 and Miami is ranked #14. Finally, Florida and Iowa slid just out of the top 10 and were replaced by Nebraska and Utah.

Here are the 13 remaining unbeatens ranked by the probability that they go undefeated:

P(WARG)* Rank	Rank	Team	P(WARG)*
1	2	Boise State	0.808
2	4	TCU	0.467
3	1	Oregon	0.397
4	5	Ohio State	0.306
5	6	Nebraska	0.171
6	10	Utah	0.163
7	27	Michigan State	0.069
8	11	LSU	0.055
9	9	Oklahoma	0.048
10	36	Nevada	0.021
11	19	Missouri	0.017
12	22	Auburn	0.009
13	30	Oklahoma State	0.005

* P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.

The first BCS rankings of the year come out on Sunday and, in that spirit, I present three storylines that I’ll be following over the remainder of the season.

1. There are several BCS conference teams that could finish the season undefeated but only Oregon and Ohio State have at least a 30% chance of finishing undefeated and Nebraska is the only other BCS conference team with better than a 7% chance of finishing undefeated. It will be interesting to see A) how the BCS rankings will sort out the non-BCS conference teams and B) how the BCS rankings will rank one-loss conference champions from BCS conferences compared to undefeated conference champs from non-BCS conferences.

2. There is only a 6.5% chance that the SEC champion finishes the season undefeated. It will be interesting to see how the BCS rankings treat a one-loss SEC champion.

3. Ohio State and Michigan State don’t play this season and could both finish the season undefeated. What would happen if they end the season as the only undefeated team from a BCS conference? Would they play for the national title?

Full week 6 rankings can be found at my personal website:
www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk6_ranking_report.pdf

Week 5 Rankings

Hey college football fans! I apologize for not posting the rankings last week. It turns out that work + a 3 month old = a very busy Joe. I’ll do my best to get these up earlier starting next week.

What have we learned in the last two weeks? Quite a bit, actually. Alabama and Oregon are awesome, Boise State is very good but no one cares because they play in the WAC, Florida doesn’t know how to play offense, Texas and USC aren’t very good this year and Les Miles is still Les Miles. Exciting stuff, huh?

The rankings haven’t changed much over the last two weeks. Oregon is still number 1, followed by Alabama and Boise State. Ohio State and TCU switched places and are now ranked numbers 4 and 5, respectively. Miami (#6) and Iowa (#8) are the only teams to move into the top 10 due to good performances after early losses, while Nebraska and LSU dropped out of the top 10. Nebraska was hurt by a very mediocre performance in a victory over the South Dakota State Jackrabbits and LSU has the notable handicap of being coached by Les Miles. Rounding out the top 10 are Stanford, Florida and Oklahoma.

Here are the top 15 teams ranked by the probability that they go undefeated:

P(WARG)* Rank	Rank	Team	P(WARG)*
1	3	Boise State	0.787
2	1	Oregon	0.599
3	5	TCU	0.506
4	2	Alabama	0.369
5	4	Ohio State	0.270
6	11	Nebraska	0.096
7	16	Utah	0.074
8	10	Oklahoma	0.066
9	30	Nevada	0.037
10	33	Michigan State	0.012
11	22	Missouri	0.011
12	12	LSU	0.006
13	27	Oklahoma State	0.006
14	15	Arizona	0.005
15	20	Auburn	0.005

* P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.

Not much changed here. Boise State, Oregon and TCU are all in good shape to go undefeated. Although, any chance that Boise State and TCU would play for the national title ahead of an undefeated team from a BCS conference were put to rest when the pollsters jumped Oregon ahead of Boise State over the weekend. The only meaningful change in the last two weeks is that Alabama cleared two meaningful hurdles in Florida and Arkansas and now have a much better chance of going undefeated. Alabama is still likely to get tripped up along with way with games against South Carolina, LSU, Auburn and the SEC championship game but beating Arkansas and Florida was a good start.   

Full week 5 rankings can be found at my personal website:

www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk5_ranking_report.pdf