Hey football fans! Week 2 is in the books and we’re already seeing some
big wins and upsets that will shape the season.
Here are a couple of major results from week 2, in case you missed them:
- @ Georgia over South Carolina: 41 – 30
- @Michigan over Notre Dame: 41 – 30
- @Miami over Florida: 21 – 16
- @BYU over Texas: 40 - 21
Georgia may have saved their season with a big win over South Carolina
and Michigan established themselves as the team to beat in the Big 10 with a
big win over Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Miami and BYU pulled big upsets over the
weekend, resulting in major disappointment in Gainesville and Austin.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 2:
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
1
|
Oregon
|
33.2
|
2-0
|
5.7
|
0.121
|
11.3 – 0.7
|
0.413
|
2
|
Alabama
|
29.4
|
1-0
|
3.1
|
0.126
|
11.0 – 1.0
|
0.254
|
3
|
Florida State
|
26.1
|
1-0
|
-1.0
|
0.263
|
11.1 – 0.9
|
0.274
|
4
|
Georgia
|
23.1
|
1-1
|
8.9
|
0.054
|
8.9 – 3.1
|
0.031
|
5
|
LSU
|
23.0
|
2-0
|
7.0
|
0.030
|
9.3 – 2.7
|
0.011
|
6
|
Baylor
|
21.0
|
2-0
|
2.2
|
0.184
|
9.9 – 2.1
|
0.073
|
7
|
Michigan
|
20.9
|
2-0
|
2.5
|
0.267
|
10.4 – 1.6
|
0.091
|
8
|
Stanford
|
20.6
|
1-0
|
8.0
|
0.079
|
9.1 – 2.9
|
0.010
|
9
|
Clemson
|
20.1
|
2-0
|
3.8
|
0.134
|
10.0 – 2.0
|
0.048
|
10
|
Washington
|
19.7
|
1-0
|
7.1
|
0.050
|
8.8 – 3.2
|
0.004
|
The top 5 were pretty stable from last week with only Texas taking a
major tumble after their upset loss to BYU. In contrast, there was a lot of
movement from 6 – 10 but that should settle down over the next couple of weeks.
Here are the top 10 teams with the best chance of finishing undefeated:
P(WARG) Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
1
|
16
|
Louisville
|
0.438
|
2
|
1
|
Oregon
|
0.413
|
3
|
3
|
Florida State
|
0.274
|
4
|
2
|
Alabama
|
0.254
|
5
|
42
|
Fresno State
|
0.119
|
6
|
7
|
Michigan
|
0.091
|
7
|
6
|
Baylor
|
0.073
|
8
|
13
|
Oklahoma State
|
0.054
|
9
|
9
|
Clemson
|
0.048
|
10
|
70
|
Northern Illinois
|
0.043
|
There are now three, distinct tiers in rankings by probability of
finishing undefeated. Louisville and Oregon have greater than a 40% chance of
finishing undefeated, Alabama and Florida State have about a 25% chance of
finishing undefeated and we observe a steady decline in probability of
finishing undefeated from #5 to #10. These probabilities are probably a little
high due to early season volatility but I think the ordering provides a useful
measure of the relative chance of finishing undefeated among the top teams.
There are several interesting games on the schedule this weekend, with
the big rematch in College Station taking the headlines. Here’s a little more
info on that game, plus a few more worth watching:
- #2 (in my rankings) Alabama @ #15 Texas A&M, Alabama favored by 7.4, 71% chance of winning
- #22 Tennessee @ #1 Oregon, Oregon favored by 21.3, 95% chance of winning
- #21 UCLA @ #36 Nebraska, UCLA favored by 1.7, 55% chance of winning
- #14 Wisconsin @ #17 Arizona State, Arizona State favored by 2.0, 56% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 3!
No comments:
Post a Comment