Monday, September 16, 2013

Week 3 Rankings



Hey football fans!

Week 3 brought us our biggest match-up of the season so far in Alabama’s 49 – 42 victory over Texas A&M in College Station. Meanwhile, Oregon continued their early season domination with a 59 – 14 win over Tennessee, while UCLA and Arizona State made me look like a profit by defeating Big 10 foes Nebraska and Wisconsin, respectively. Unfortunately, Arizona State’s victory is marred in controversy thanks to the less than stellar officiating of the Pac 12 officiating crew.

Here are the updated top 10 after week 3:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

SOS1

SOS2

E(FR)

P(WARG)
1
Oregon
37.7
3-0
4.9
0.179
11.7 – 0.3
0.725
2
Florida State
29.9
2-0
-1.3
0.290
11.4 – 0.6
0.466
3
Alabama
28.8
2-0
2.3
0.164
11.4 – 0.6
0.375
4
Georgia
23.0
1-1
8.5
0.070
9.1 – 2.9
0.035
5
LSU
20.9
3-0
6.7
0.028
8.8 – 3.2
0.004
6
Baylor
20.6
2-0
1.2
0.232
10.1 – 1.9
0.087
7
Oklahoma State
20.5
3-0
3.6
0.263
10.3 – 1.7
0.127
8
Mississippi
19.8
3-0
5.3
0.054
9.4 – 2.6
0.008
9
Clemson
19.7
2-0
3.6
0.112
9.8 – 2.2
0.030
10
Washington
19.6
2-0
7.2
0.039
9.0 – 3.0
0.004

The big story here is Oregon, who is now almost eight points better than the next best team in the country, Florida State. The Ducks probably aren’t that good but this illustrates just how dominant they’ve been in the first three weeks of the season. Otherwise, the top 10 is very similar to last week with only Oklahoma State and Ole Miss jumping into the top 10 to replace Stanford and Michigan, who both posted closer than expected wins over weak opponents in week 3.

Here are the top 10 teams with the best chance of finishing undefeated:


P(WARG) Rank

Rank

Team

P(WARG)
1
1
Oregon
0.725
2
16
Louisville
0.523
3
2
Florida State
0.466
4
3
Alabama
0.375
5
7
Oklahoma State
0.127
6
45
Fresno State
0.093
7
6
Baylor
0.087
8
20
Ohio State
0.031
9
9
Clemson
0.030
10
13
Oklahoma
0.025

Oregon currently has an incredible 73% chance of finishing undefeated. This is almost certainly an overestimate but illustrates that they will be heavy favorites in every game for the rest of the season. Elsewhere, Louisville, Florida State and Alabama are all in great shape and there is a substantial drop from Alabama (38% chance of finishing undefeated) to the next most likely team to finish undefeated (Oklahoma State – 13% chance of finishing undefeated).

This weekend’s headliner is Arizona State vs. Stanford. Most would be surprised to hear that I have Arizona State (#18) ranked ahead of Stanford (#22) but Stanford is still favored because the game is at Stanford. Otherwise, this weekend’s slate is pretty lean but there are a couple other interesting games, if you look for them:

  • #18 (in my rankings) Arizona State @ #22 Stanford, Stanford favored by 2.2, 57% chance of winning
  •  #37 Tennessee @  #19 Florida, Florida favored by 9.6, 79% chance of winning
  •  #38 Michigan State @ #36 Notre Dame, Notre Dame favored by 4.2, 64% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:


Enjoy the week 4!

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