Friday, November 23, 2012

Week 12 Rankings



Hi football fans. I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving! There is a lot to go over after I dropped the ball last week.

Two weeks ago, there were four undefeated teams fighting for the top spot in the BCS. Now there is only one. First, Alabama lost at home to Texas A&M. This was certainly an upset but I’ve had Texas A&M in the top 10 for most of the season and there were probably one of the most underrated teams in the country before defeating Alabama. Last weekend, Stanford and Baylor ended Oregon and Kansas State’s undefeated season, leaving Notre Dame as the last remaining undefeated national title contender.

 Here is my updated top 10 after all the carnage:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

E(FR)

P(WARG)
1
Alabama
29.83
10-1
10.99 – 1.01
0.775
2
Oregon
28.63
10-1
10.78 – 1.22
0.705
3
Florida State
25.11
10-1
10.76 – 1.24
0.719
4
Oklahoma
23.01
8-2
9.33 – 2.67
0.441
5
Kansas State
22.60
10-1
10.75 – 1.25
0.748
6
Texas A&M
22.59
9-2
9.89 – 2.11
0.891
7
Oklahoma State
21.05
7-3
8.06 – 3.94
0.257
8
Notre Dame
20.77
11-1
11.51 – 0.49
0.506
9
Georgia
19.78
10-1
10.84 – 1.16
0.511
10
Clemson
19.49
10-1
10.64 – 1.36
0.582

The top five are the same as two weeks ago, although, Oklahoma and Kansas State flip-flopped, but only Texas A&M and Notre Dame remain from 6 – 10. Florida, LSU and South Carolina, who were in the top 10 two weeks ago, have now been replaced by Oklahoma State, Georgia and Clemson. It is also worth noting that Alabama has come back to the pack after their loss to the Aggies and are now only a point ahead of Oregon.

Here are the top 14 in the current BCS rankings along with the probability that they win all remaining games:


BCS Rank

Rank

Team

P(WARG)
1
8
Notre Dame
0.506
2
1
Alabama
0.775
3
9
Georgia
0.511
4
12
Florida
0.145
5
2
Oregon
0.705
6
5
Kansas State
0.748
7
11
LSU
0.830
8
15
Stanford
0.397
9
6
Texas A&M
0.891
10
3
Florida State
0.719
11
10
Clemson
0.582
12
14
South Carolina
0.356
13
4
Oklahoma
0.441
14
19
Nebraska
0.556

Notre Dame controls their own destiny but still have a 50% chance of falling to USC on Saturday night. That said, my rankings don’t know that Matt Barkley is out of the gaming, meaning that Notre Dame is probably a bigger favorite than the rankings suggest. Should Notre Dame win, they will likely face the SEC champion in the national title game unless something crazy happens tomorrow. Elsewhere, Oregon and Kansas State are likely to win out. Although, Oregon needs some help to play in the Pac 12 title game and this will likely be held against them in the final poll. Finally, Florida would likely be the biggest beneficiary of a Notre Dame loss but first have to beat Florida State on Saturday. The rankings have Florida State favored by about 10, suggesting that this will be a tough test for the Gators.

The obvious headliner this weekend is Notre Dame vs. USC. A Notre Dame victory puts them in the national title game but a loss opens the door for more controversy. Elsewhere, Florida/Florida will have potential national title implications and there is also a full slate of rivalry games such as Ohio State vs. Michigan, Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, Washington vs. Washington State, etc. I hope everyone enjoys the weekend!

Full ranking can be found at my personal website: http://www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/index.php?page=sports


Thursday, November 8, 2012

Week 10 Rankings



Hi football fans. I hope you enjoyed the weekend!

Alabama, Kansas State and Oregon remained undefeated with wins over difficult opponents LSU, Oklahoma State and USC, respectively. Surprisingly, Notre Dame, who was expected to have the easiest weekend of the BCS top 4, needed three overtimes to defeat Pitt 29-26. Elsewhere, Louisville also remained undefeated but barely cracked the BCS top 10 and are currently ranked number 35 in my rankings.

 Here is my updated top 10:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

E(FR)

P(WARG)
1
Alabama
32.12
9-0
11.77 – 0.23
0.609
2
Oregon
28.02
9-0
11.64 – 0.36
0.560
3
Florida State
25.47
8-1
10.52 – 1.48
0.550
4
Kansas State
25.21
9-0
11.44 – 0.56
0.538
5
Oklahoma
24.96
6-2
9.25 – 2.75
0.432
6
Texas A&M
23.73
7-2
9.11 – 2.89
0.194
7
Florida
21.59
8-1
10.30 – 1.70
0.174
8
Notre Dame
21.11
9-0
11.46 – 0.54
0.490
9
LSU
19.85
7-2
9.55 – 2.45
0.612
10
South Carolina
19.83
7-2
9.36 – 2.64
0.410

It would take a monumental upset to drastically change the top 10 at this point. Notre Dame dropped a spot due to their struggles against Pitt but the top 10 are essentially the same as last week. Texas A&M did their part to justify my ranking in a 38-13 victory over Mississippi State. Mississippi State is having a solid season and their only other loss is to Alabama. Finally, Florida State continues to fly under the radar but are a one point loss to NC State from being in the middle of the national title conversation.

Here are the top 14 in the current BCS rankings along with the probability that they win all remaining games:


BCS Rank

Rank

Team

P(WARG)
1
1
Alabama
0.609
2
4
Kansas State
0.538
3
2
Oregon
0.560
4
8
Notre Dame
0.490
5
11
Georgia
0.446
6
7
Florida
0.174
7
9
LSU
0.612
8
10
South Carolina
0.410
9
35
Louisville
0.288
10
3
Florida State
0.550
11
26
Oregon State
0.025
12
5
Oklahoma
0.432
13
12
Clemson
0.433
14
18
Stanford
0.034

Alabama, Oregon and Kansas State all drastically improved their chances of finishing undefeated over the weekend, while Notre Dame’s probability of finishing undefeated essentially stayed the same after their victory against Pitt. The rankings didn’t give Pitt much of a chance in the first place and Notre Dame appears slightly less likely to defeat USC in a couple of weeks after Saturday’s mediocre performance. Last week, I misspoke, saying that there was a greater than 50% chance of at least 3 of the top 4 finishing undefeated. That’s not quite right, but it’s close. At this point, there is a 4% chance that all four lose, a 20% chance that three of the four lose, a 37% chance that two of four finish undefeated, a 30% chance that three of the four finish undefeated and a 9% chance that all four finish undefeated. While there is less than a 50% chance that three or more of the top four finish undefeated, it’s pretty close at 39%.

Alabama faces their last real test of the regular season on Saturday against Texas A&M. The rankings have been high on the Aggies all season and it will be interesting to see how they stack up against the Tide. Kansas State also faces a solid opponent in TCU. TCU may not be a top 10 football team but they’re pretty solid and ranked #22 in my rankings. Finally, Oregon and Notre Dame should have an easier go of it with games against California and Boston College, respectively.

Full ranking can be found at my personal website: http://www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/index.php?page=sports