Hey football fans! The season kicks-off in a couple of hours – it’s time
to get down to business!
Below you can find information on my pre-season rankings. I rank teams
using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Bayesian statistics requires that I
specify a prior distribution, which is essentially a best-guess as to the
relative strength of each team before any game results are observed. My
pre-season rankings are this ‘best-guess’ and are an aggregate ranking from
various pre-season rankings that can be found on the internet. Throughout the
season, my model will update these rankings as game results are observed, but,
unlike the polls, I take a formal statistical approach to updating the
rankings, rather than the haphazard approach taken by the pollsters. The take
away message from all of this is that I only present the pre-season rankings to
give an idea of where we’re starting from and that these shouldn’t be taken too
seriously because they will change dramatically over the first month of the
season as game results are observed.
Here are the top 10 teams from the pre-season rankings along with their
pre-season rating (points above average), two measures of their strength of
schedule, their expected final record and probability of going undefeated:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Alabama
|
25.0
|
0-0
|
4.3
|
0.064
|
9.8 – 2.2
|
0.042
|
|
2
|
Florida State
|
24.6
|
0-0
|
0.1
|
0.178
|
10.6 – 1.4
|
0.122
|
|
3
|
Oregon
|
24.2
|
0-0
|
3.6
|
0.156
|
10.4 – 1.6
|
0.086
|
|
4
|
LSU
|
23.8
|
0-0
|
7.8
|
0.022
|
8.83 – 3.17
|
0.009
|
|
5
|
Texas
|
23.4
|
0-0
|
7.3
|
0.093
|
9.7 – 2.3
|
0.067
|
|
6
|
Texas A&M
|
23.0
|
0-0
|
3.5
|
0.061
|
9.4 – 2.6
|
0.020
|
|
7
|
Georgia
|
22.6
|
0-0
|
8.2
|
0.046
|
8.9 – 3.1
|
0.010
|
|
8
|
Stanford
|
22.2
|
0-0
|
6.7
|
0.096
|
9.5 – 2.5
|
0.027
|
|
9
|
Oklahoma
|
21.8
|
0-0
|
7.7
|
0.073
|
9.3 – 2.7
|
0.032
|
|
10
|
Florida
|
21.4
|
0-0
|
9.5
|
0.029
|
8.4 – 3.6
|
0.003
|
Alabama is the unanimous number 1 but this table illustrates potential
problems ahead. The Tide play regular season games against #4 LSU and #6 Texas
A&M and could potentially play #7 Georgia or #10 Florida in the SEC
Championship game. For this reason, several teams are more likely to finish
undefeated than Alabama, even though they are expected to be the best team in the
country.
Another way to look at the pre-season rankings is to consider the top 10
teams with the best chance of finishing undefeated:
|
P(WARG) Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
26
|
Louisville
|
0.210
|
|
2
|
34
|
Fresno State
|
0.138
|
|
3
|
2
|
Florida State
|
0.122
|
|
4
|
3
|
Oregon
|
0.086
|
|
5
|
5
|
Texas
|
0.067
|
|
6
|
11
|
Ohio State
|
0.061
|
|
7
|
1
|
Alabama
|
0.042
|
|
8
|
9
|
Oklahoma
|
0.032
|
|
9
|
8
|
Stanford
|
0.027
|
|
10
|
13
|
Michigan State
|
0.026
|
Boise State does not occupy the top spot on this list for the first time
in several years but the top two teams have a similar flavor to the Broncos.
Louisville and Fresno State are both expected to be good, but not great teams,
but have a good shot at finishing undefeated because they play weak schedules.
Florida State, Oregon, Texas and Ohio State all have a better chance of finishing
undefeated than Alabama but there is a good chance that a one-loss SEC Champion
would play for the national title over an undefeated team from another
conference because of the SEC’s recent stretch of dominance in the national
title game.
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the first weekend of the season!
