Hey football fans! I hope you enjoyed the first big weekend of the college football season.
Last weekend brought the first real test for several members of the top 10. LSU and Alabama posted convincing wins over West Virginia and Arkansas, respectively, while Oklahoma shook off some early rust to post a 38-28 victory over Missouri. The highlight of the weekend, though, was Oklahoma State’s 30-29 victory over Texas A&M. Not only was this a matchup of top 10 teams but it was also a very entertaining game that saw Texas A&M take a 20-3 lead at halftime only to see Oklahoma State score 27 unanswered points for the win. My updated top 10 can be found below:
| Rank | Team | Rating | Record | SOS1 | SOS2 | E(FR) | P(WARG) |
| 1 | LSU | 27.02 | 4-0 | 4.45 | 0.058 | 10.85-1.15 | 0.194 |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 26.65 | 3-0 | 6.16 | 0.099 | 10.92-1.08 | 0.277 |
| 3 | Stanford | 26.11 | 3-0 | 1.09 | 0.277 | 11.11-0.89 | 0.280 |
| 4 | Alabama | 25.37 | 4-0 | 1.88 | 0.122 | 10.70-1.30 | 0.150 |
| 5 | Oregon | 25.08 | 3-1 | 2.78 | 0.099 | 9.94-2.06 | 0.193 |
| 6 | Boise State | 22.80 | 3-0 | -5.00 | 0.495 | 11.58-0.42 | 0.633 |
| 7 | Wisconsin | 21.72 | 4-0 | -2.74 | 0.348 | 10.71-1.29 | 0.171 |
| 8 | Oklahoma State | 21.19 | 4-0 | 5.34 | 0.100 | 10.17-1.83 | 0.090 |
| 9 | Texas A&M | 19.93 | 2-1 | 5.54 | 0.094 | 8.76-3.24 | 0.044 |
| 10 | Florida | 19.29 | 4-0 | 3.09 | 0.060 | 9.11-2.89 | 0.005 |
The big story is LSU, which moved up to number 1 after defeating West Virginia 47-21 in Morgantown. LSU has looked dominant with wins over Oregon and Mississippi State in addition to last weekend’s win over West Virginia. The only new member of the top 10 is Florida, who replaces in-state rival Florida State in the top 10. Unfortunately for the Gators, they play Alabama and LSU in the next two weeks and have virtually no chance of finishing the season undefeated (0.5%).
Here are the top 15 with the best chance of finishing undefeated:
| P(WARG) Rank | Rank | Team | P(WARG) |
| 1 | 6 | Boise State | 0.633 |
| 2 | 3 | Stanford | 0.280 |
| 3 | 2 | Oklahoma | 0.277 |
| 4 | 1 | LSU | 0.194 |
| 5 | 7 | Wisconsin | 0.171 |
| 6 | 4 | Alabama | 0.150 |
| 7 | 43 | Houston | 0.142 |
| 8 | 8 | Oklahoma State | 0.090 |
| 9 | 21 | South Florida | 0.086 |
| 10 | 18 | Virginia Tech | 0.048 |
| 11 | 20 | Michigan | 0.018 |
| 12 | 26 | Georgia Tech | 0.012 |
| 13 | 17 | South Carolina | 0.008 |
| 14 | 10 | Florida | 0.005 |
| 15 | 23 | Nebraska | 0.005 |
This list looks pretty similar to last week with Boise State in good position to finish the season undefeated, followed by Stanford, Oklahoma, LSU, Wisconsin and Alabama. Florida International and Ohio were both in the top 15 last week but lost, leaving Houston as the only surprise team with a good chance of finishing the season undefeated. Finally, it’s interesting to note that 23 teams finished September undefeated but 13 of those 23 have less than a 2% chance of going undefeated over the entire season.
This weekend offers several matchups of undefeated teams highlighted by Alabama’s trip to Gainesville to play Florida and a sea of red in Madison as Nebraska takes on Wisconsin. Also of interest is a matchup of future SEC rivals as Arkansas takes on Texas A&M as both try to rebound after suffering their first losses of the season last weekend. Enjoy!
As always, the full ranking can be found at my personal website: www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk4_rankings_2011.pdf
No comments:
Post a Comment