Hey football fans! I’m running late again but better late than never.
Last week brought another strong Saturday of college football. Oregon
continued their domination of the Pac-12 with a 42-14 victory over UCLA.
Elsewhere in the Pac-12, Stanford defeated Oregon State 20 – 12, setting up
next week’s match-up with Oregon that should decide the Pac-12 north.
Meanwhile, Missouri and Texas Tech lost their first games of the season to
South Carolina and Oklahoma, respectively.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 9:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Oregon
|
35.2
|
8 – 0
|
4.0
|
0.16
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.63
|
|
2
|
Florida State
|
34.6
|
7 – 0
|
-1.4
|
0.27
|
11.8 – 0.2
|
0.78
|
|
3
|
Baylor
|
31.6
|
7 – 0
|
1.3
|
0.24
|
11.5 – 0.5
|
0.59
|
|
4
|
Alabama
|
30.6
|
8 – 0
|
2.4
|
0.14
|
11.6 – 0.4
|
0.50
|
|
5
|
Ohio State
|
23.4
|
8 – 0
|
-0.5
|
0.37
|
11.6 – 0.4
|
0.50
|
|
6
|
LSU
|
21.7
|
7 – 2
|
4.9
|
0.04
|
8.9 – 3.1
|
0.12
|
|
7
|
Arizona State
|
21.3
|
5 – 2
|
7.9
|
0.09
|
8.8 – 3.2
|
0.04
|
|
8
|
Wisconsin
|
21.2
|
5 – 2
|
1.6
|
0.13
|
9.3 – 2.7
|
0.41
|
|
9
|
Stanford
|
20.7
|
7 – 1
|
8.6
|
0.05
|
9.6 – 2.4
|
0.07
|
|
10
|
Missouri
|
19.9
|
7 – 1
|
5.0
|
0.14
|
9.9 – 2.1
|
0.06
|
The top 10 remained the same as last week, albeit with a little
reshuffling. Oregon and Florida State flip-flopped again after Oregon’s big
victory over the Bruins, while Missouri dropped two spots due to their loss
against South Carolina and Ohio State jumped up five spots to #5 as they remain
undefeated. At this point, there is a large separation between the top 4 teams
and the rest of the top 10. #1 Oregon and #4 Alabama are separated by only 4.6 points
per game, while #4 Alabama and #5 Ohio State are separated by over a touchdown.
Here are the top 14 teams in the current BCS standings and the probability
that they win all of their remaining games:
|
BCS Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
4
|
Alabama
|
0.497
|
|
2
|
1
|
Oregon
|
0.629
|
|
3
|
2
|
Florida State
|
0.777
|
|
4
|
5
|
Ohio State
|
0.504
|
|
5
|
9
|
Stanford
|
0.066
|
|
6
|
3
|
Baylor
|
0.594
|
|
7
|
25
|
Miami
|
0.003
|
|
8
|
11
|
Clemson
|
0.286
|
|
9
|
10
|
Missouri
|
0.060
|
|
10
|
21
|
Oklahoma
|
0.016
|
|
11
|
26
|
Auburn
|
0.029
|
|
12
|
12
|
Texas A&M
|
0.111
|
|
13
|
6
|
LSU
|
0.124
|
|
14
|
14
|
South Carolina
|
0.174
|
Missouri dropped a couple of spots but otherwise things are pretty
similar to last week here. Oddly, Alabama has the lowest chance of finishing
the season undefeated among Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State and
Baylor even though they are the unanimous #1 in the popular polls. Baylor
continues to get no respect but that should change as they enter the toughest
stretch of their schedule next Thursday. Finally, we’re late in the season to
have this many undefeated teams and, at this point, there is nearly a 70%
chance that at least three AQ conference teams finishes the season undefeated.
There are only two games featuring two top 25 teams this weekend. Miami
travels to Florida State in a game that looks interesting but is expected to be
a blow-out victory for Florida State. The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail
Party should be a competitive football game but has lost some luster due to
Florida’s struggles over the last few weeks. Here is a little more information on
both games:
- #25 (in my rankings) Miami @ #2 Florida State, Florida State favored by 22.4, 95% chance of winning
- #15 Georgia vs. #18 Florida, Georgia favored by 1.3, 54% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 10!
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