Friday, November 23, 2012

Week 12 Rankings



Hi football fans. I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving! There is a lot to go over after I dropped the ball last week.

Two weeks ago, there were four undefeated teams fighting for the top spot in the BCS. Now there is only one. First, Alabama lost at home to Texas A&M. This was certainly an upset but I’ve had Texas A&M in the top 10 for most of the season and there were probably one of the most underrated teams in the country before defeating Alabama. Last weekend, Stanford and Baylor ended Oregon and Kansas State’s undefeated season, leaving Notre Dame as the last remaining undefeated national title contender.

 Here is my updated top 10 after all the carnage:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

E(FR)

P(WARG)
1
Alabama
29.83
10-1
10.99 – 1.01
0.775
2
Oregon
28.63
10-1
10.78 – 1.22
0.705
3
Florida State
25.11
10-1
10.76 – 1.24
0.719
4
Oklahoma
23.01
8-2
9.33 – 2.67
0.441
5
Kansas State
22.60
10-1
10.75 – 1.25
0.748
6
Texas A&M
22.59
9-2
9.89 – 2.11
0.891
7
Oklahoma State
21.05
7-3
8.06 – 3.94
0.257
8
Notre Dame
20.77
11-1
11.51 – 0.49
0.506
9
Georgia
19.78
10-1
10.84 – 1.16
0.511
10
Clemson
19.49
10-1
10.64 – 1.36
0.582

The top five are the same as two weeks ago, although, Oklahoma and Kansas State flip-flopped, but only Texas A&M and Notre Dame remain from 6 – 10. Florida, LSU and South Carolina, who were in the top 10 two weeks ago, have now been replaced by Oklahoma State, Georgia and Clemson. It is also worth noting that Alabama has come back to the pack after their loss to the Aggies and are now only a point ahead of Oregon.

Here are the top 14 in the current BCS rankings along with the probability that they win all remaining games:


BCS Rank

Rank

Team

P(WARG)
1
8
Notre Dame
0.506
2
1
Alabama
0.775
3
9
Georgia
0.511
4
12
Florida
0.145
5
2
Oregon
0.705
6
5
Kansas State
0.748
7
11
LSU
0.830
8
15
Stanford
0.397
9
6
Texas A&M
0.891
10
3
Florida State
0.719
11
10
Clemson
0.582
12
14
South Carolina
0.356
13
4
Oklahoma
0.441
14
19
Nebraska
0.556

Notre Dame controls their own destiny but still have a 50% chance of falling to USC on Saturday night. That said, my rankings don’t know that Matt Barkley is out of the gaming, meaning that Notre Dame is probably a bigger favorite than the rankings suggest. Should Notre Dame win, they will likely face the SEC champion in the national title game unless something crazy happens tomorrow. Elsewhere, Oregon and Kansas State are likely to win out. Although, Oregon needs some help to play in the Pac 12 title game and this will likely be held against them in the final poll. Finally, Florida would likely be the biggest beneficiary of a Notre Dame loss but first have to beat Florida State on Saturday. The rankings have Florida State favored by about 10, suggesting that this will be a tough test for the Gators.

The obvious headliner this weekend is Notre Dame vs. USC. A Notre Dame victory puts them in the national title game but a loss opens the door for more controversy. Elsewhere, Florida/Florida will have potential national title implications and there is also a full slate of rivalry games such as Ohio State vs. Michigan, Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, Washington vs. Washington State, etc. I hope everyone enjoys the weekend!

Full ranking can be found at my personal website: http://www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/index.php?page=sports


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