Hi football fans. I hope you enjoyed the weekend! I’m sure you did if
you’re a fan of Florida or Kansas State. Both teams flexed their muscles with
big victories over South Carolina and West Virginia, respectively. Elsewhere,
Notre Dame kept their dream of a perfect season alive with a hard-fought 17-14
victory over BYU.
Here is my updated top 10:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Alabama
|
32.55
|
7-0
|
11.57 – 0.43
|
0.487
|
|
2
|
Oklahoma
|
27.95
|
5-1
|
10.13 – 1.87
|
0.386
|
|
3
|
Oregon
|
27.32
|
7-0
|
11.25 – 0.75
|
0.332
|
|
4
|
Florida State
|
24.38
|
7-1
|
10.38 – 1.62
|
0.451
|
|
5
|
Kansas State
|
23.72
|
7-0
|
10.84 – 1.16
|
0.264
|
|
6
|
Florida
|
23.25
|
7-0
|
10.95 – 1.05
|
0.065
|
|
7
|
South Carolina
|
20.83
|
6-2
|
9.32 – 2.68
|
0.425
|
|
8
|
Texas A&M
|
20.64
|
5-2
|
8.57 – 3.43
|
0.072
|
|
9
|
Notre Dame
|
20.32
|
7-0
|
10.55 – 1.45
|
0.086
|
|
10
|
LSU
|
19.96
|
7-1
|
9.75 – 2.25
|
0.094
|
The Top 10 remains SEC-centric with 5 of the top 10 coming from the SEC.
At this point, Alabama appears to be far and away the best team in the country
and is at least 4.5 points better than every other team in the country. South
Carolina and Texas A&M are still ranked surprisingly high at 6 and 7,
respectively. Texas A&M is the more understandable of the two as their only
two losses were close games against Florida and LSU. It’s surprising that South
Carolina was hurt more by their shellacking at the hands of the Gators but they
still have a big victory against Georgia (#11) to hang their hat on.
Here are the top 14 in the initial BCS rankings along with the
probability that they win all remaining games:
|
BCS Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
1
|
Alabama
|
0.487
|
|
2
|
6
|
Florida
|
0.065
|
|
3
|
5
|
Kansas State
|
0.264
|
|
4
|
3
|
Oregon
|
0.332
|
|
5
|
9
|
Notre Dame
|
0.086
|
|
6
|
10
|
LSU
|
0.094
|
|
7
|
25
|
Oregon State
|
0.004
|
|
8
|
2
|
Oklahoma
|
0.386
|
|
9
|
11
|
USC
|
0.026
|
|
10
|
13
|
Georgia
|
0.104
|
|
11
|
26
|
Mississippi State
|
~0.000
|
|
12
|
4
|
Florida State
|
0.451
|
|
13
|
7
|
South Carolina
|
0.425
|
|
14
|
15
|
Texas Tech
|
0.044
|
Alabama continues to roll along and now have almost a 50% chance of finishing
the season undefeated. Kansas State and Oregon are also in good shape with a
26% and 33% chance of finishing undefeated. Florida and Notre Dame have tougher
roads ahead of them. Florida still has Georgia, Florida State and a potential
SEC Championship game against Alabama on the schedule, while Notre Dame still
has to play road games at Oklahoma and USC. I currently have Notre Dame as an
eleven point underdog against Oklahoma. A win this weekend would substantially improve
their probability of finishing undefeated.
Most people are looking ahead to next weekend when Alabama plays LSU and
Oregon plays USC but this weekend could be epic. Four of the top five in the
BCS face major tests with Alabama playing undefeated Mississippi State (#26 in
my rankings), Florida playing Georgia (#10) in the game formerly known as the
World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, Kansas State plays Texas Tech (#15) and
Notre Dame is actually an underdog on the road against Oklahoma (#2). It should
be a fun weekend!
Full ranking can be found at my personal website: http://www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/index.php?page=sports
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