Thursday, December 15, 2011

Bowl Preview


Hey football fans. It’s almost bowl season! You know, that time of year where we celebrate the history and tradition of college football by watching 70 of the best college football teams in the land duke it out for the right to say that they are the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl or Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas Champion. What would we do without corporate sponsors?

Before we get to the bowls, let’s first take a look at my top ten after the last weekend of the regular season:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

SOS1

SOS2
1
LSU
31.12
13-0
6.66
0.019
2
Alabama
28.08
11-1
3.77
0.048
3
Oklahoma State
27.32
11-1
7.07
0.061
4
Oregon
25.80
11-2
5.19
0.031
5
Stanford
25.32
11-1
4.81
0.082
6
Wisconsin
24.94
11-2
0.45
0.124
7
Oklahoma
24.07
9-3
6.53
0.060
8
Boise State
20.25
11-1
-3.88
0.393
9
Florida State
17.74
8-4
1.10
0.208
10
USC
17.71
10-2
6.03
0.074

The top 10 remain the same but the order is slightly different. Oklahoma State made the biggest move after their victory over Oklahoma. There was a lot of controversy surrounding the decision to include Alabama in the BCS Championship game over Oklahoma State but, as you can see, the teams were pretty even. I would have preferred to see Oklahoma State get a shot at LSU but this is hardly the greatest injustice of the BCS era. USC is, of course, the only team in the top 10 (top 70?) not playing in a bowl game because of probation. I’ve read several stories predicting them as a national title contender next season but that assumes Matt Barkley will return for his senior year and that is hardly a given.

Below you can find my bowl preview, which includes the favorite, predicted line and probability of an upset in each bowl. The table pretty much speaks for itself but I do want to point out a few things:

  • I have LSU favored by 3 in the national title game but this does not include the home field advantage that they will have because the game is played in New Orleans
  • The BCS games are even matchups, for the most part, but it’s funny to see that the BCS game I’m predicting to be the closest is the game that people are least likely to watch (Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Clemson)
  • I’m amazed that regional companies like Belk or Beef ‘O’ Brady’s have enough money to sponsor a bowl… it must be cheaper than I thought. I think bowl naming rights would make an excellent Christmas gift. Who wouldn’t watch the Joe Koopmeiners Bowl?

Bowl
Favorite
Underdog
Line
P(Upset)
Date
BCS Championship Game
 LSU
 Alabama
 3.04
 0.416
 1/9/12
Orange Bowl
 West Virginia
 Clemson
 0.3
 0.492
 1/4/12
Sugar Bowl
 Michigan
 Virginia Tech
 5.71
 0.346
 1/3/12
Fiesta Bowl
 Oklahoma State
 Stanford
 2
 0.445
 1/2/12
Rose Bowl
 Oregon
 Wisconsin
 0.86
 0.476
 1/2/12
Cotton Bowl
 Arkansas
 Kansas State
 10.02
 0.243
 1/6/12
Gator Bowl
 Ohio State
 Florida
 0.25
 0.493
 1/2/12
Capital One Bowl
 South Carolina
 Nebraska
 2.25
 0.438
 1/2/12
Outback Bowl
 Georgia
 Michigan State
 0.43
 0.488
 1/2/12
GoDaddy.com Bowl
 Northern Illinois
 Arkansas State
 1.6
 0.456
 1/8/12
BBVA Compass Bowl
 Pittsburgh
 SMU
 7.36
 0.305
 1/7/12
TicketCity Bowl
 Houston
 Penn State
 7.05
 0.312
 1/2/12
Chick-fil-A Bowl
 Auburn
 Virginia
 3.44
 0.406
 12/31/11
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
 Illinois
 UCLA
 4.76
 0.371
 12/31/11
Liberty Bowl
 Cincinnati
 Vanderbilt
 3.09
 0.415
 12/31/11
Sun Bowl
 Utah
 Georgia Tech
 1.21
 0.467
 12/31/11
Meineke Car Care Bowl
 Texas A&M
 Northwestern
 14.54
 0.156
 12/31/11
Insight Bowl
 Oklahoma
 Iowa
 17.49
 0.112
 12/30/11
Music City Bowl
 Mississippi State
 Wake Forest
 9.73
 0.25
 12/30/11
Pinstripe Bowl
 Rutgers
 Iowa State
 4.13
 0.387
 12/30/11
Armed Forces Bowl
 BYU
 Tulsa
 2.14
 0.441
 12/30/11
Alamo Bowl
 Baylor
 Washington
 7.52
 0.301
 12/29/11
Champs Sports Bowl
 Florida State
 Notre Dame
 1.17
 0.468
 12/29/11
Holiday Bowl
 Texas
 California
 4.12
 0.387
 12/28/11
Military Bowl
 Toledo
 Air Force
 3.15
 0.413
 12/28/11
Belk Bowl
 North Carolina State
 Louisville
 0.4
 0.489
 12/27/11
Little Ceasers Bowl
 Purdue
 Western Michigan
 1.67
 0.454
 12/27/11
Independence Bowl
 Missouri
 North Carolina
 8.52
 0.277
 12/26/11
Hawaii Bowl
 Southern Mississippi
 Nevada
 7.03
 0.313
 12/24/11
Las Vegas Bowl
 Boise State
 Arizona State
 8.86
 0.269
 12/22/11
Poinsettia Bowl
 TCU
 Louisiana Tech
 14.74
 0.153
 12/21/11
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl
 Florida International
 Marshall
 3.98
 0.391
 12/20/11
New Orleans Bowl
 San Diego State
 Louisiana-Lafayette
 9.44
 0.256
 12/17/11
Idaho Potato Bowl
 Ohio
 Utah State
 1.69
 0.453
 12/17/11
New Mexico Bowl
 Temple
 Wyoming
 12.32
 0.196
 12/17/11

As always, the full ranking can be found at my personal website: www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk14_rankings_2011.pdf



No comments:

Post a Comment