Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Week 12 Ranking

Hey football fans! We’re getting down to crunch time. Only two weeks remaining to sort out the national championship picture. Last weekend was about as uneventful as a college football Saturday can be in November. Luckily, that won’t be the case this weekend. I don’t know about you but I plan on enjoying some Turkey on Thursday and camping out in front of the TV on Friday.

I’m going to break from my normal routine and focus on the remaining schedules for the four teams that still have a shot at playing for the national title: Oregon, Auburn, TCU and Boise State. Presented are their remaining schedule, predicted line for each game (from my rankings), probability of winning each game and probability of winning all remaining games.

TCU, P(WARG) = ~1.0
Opponent Line P(victory)
@ New Mexico 49.73 ~1.0

It doesn’t get much easier than that. TCU is a 50 point favorite against New Mexico. A New Mexico victory would be one of the biggest upsets in college football history.

Boise State, P(WARG) = 0.888
Opponent Line P(victory)
@ Nevada 17.95 0.892
vs. Utah St. 46.81 0.999

Boise State has more work to do than TCU but not by much. A lot of people think Nevada will give them a game but Boise State is still favored by almost 20. What I wrote about New Mexico beating TCU also applies to a potential Utah State upset over Boise State.

Oregon, P(WARG) = 0.787
Opponent Line P(victory)
vs. Arizona 20.38 0.920
@ Oregon St. (Civil War) 15.61 0.859

Oregon finishes the season with two solid opponents but are solid favorites in both games. You’re probably a little surprised to see Oregon favored by 20 over Arizona but only 16 over Oregon State. This is mostly due to home field advantage (Arizona is ranked one spot ahead of Oregon State) but it’s also worth noting that Oregon State is much better than their record suggests. Oregon State has the most difficult schedule in the country that includes four of the top six teams in the country (Oregon, Boise State, TCU and Stanford) and several of their losses have been close. Oregon State is not a top ten team but the Civil War will be a test for Oregon.

Auburn, P(WARG) = 0.145
Opponent Line P(victory)
@ Alabama (Iron Bowl) -9.66 0.253
vs. South Carolina (SEC Championship) 2.20 0.560
The last two weeks are going to be tough sledding for the Auburn Tigers. They are a ten point underdog against Alabama and are only favored by two against South Carolina. The only advantage Auburn has is that they might still play for the national title even if they lose to Alabama on Friday. Of course, there’s also a 33% chance that they lose both games, which would drop them out of the BCS entirely.

Full week 12 rankings can be found at my personal website:

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