Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Week 3 Rankings

Hey college football fans! I’ve had two weeks of hell at work (hence no week 2 post) but at least I have college football to look forward to on Saturday.

It’s only been three weeks but we’re starting to see some separation at the top of the rankings. Oregon and Alabama (ranked #1 and #2, respectively) have turned in the most impressive early season performances. Both have cruised to three easy victories. Oregon has put up more points but Alabama has played a slightly tougher schedule. There is a four point gap between Alabama and the next four teams in the rankings – Boise State, TCU, Ohio State and Nebraska. All four have been impressive early but Boise State and TCU will be fighting the perception that their success is primarily due to playing in weak conferences for the rest of the season. The big surprise in the top 10 is #7 Stanford. Jim Harbaugh has the LSJU Fighting Trees playing good football and has this Notre Dame fan nervous for Saturday. We’ll learn more about Stanford on October 2nd when they play Oregon. Florida, LSU and Oklahoma round out the top 10; all three are undefeated but have been inconsistent early.

P(WARG)* Rank Rank Team P(WARG)*
1 3 Boise State 0.683
2 1 Oregon 0.621
3 4 TCU 0.570
4 5 Ohio State 0.260
5 6 Nebraska 0.260
6 2 Alabama 0.190
7 20 Utah 0.033
8 10 Oklahoma 0.030
9 35 Nevada 0.024
10 9 LSU 0.020
11 7 Stanford 0.018
12 14 Texas 0.016
13 44 Fresno State 0.011
14 8 Florida 0.009
15 32 Wisconsin 0.007
* P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.

The separation between the top 6 and everyone else is more obvious when we consider the probability of finishing undefeated. All three have at least a 19% chance of finishing undefeated, while the next highest (Utah) only has a 3.3% chance of finishing undefeated. Boise State has their second big test of the season Saturday against Oregon State. They shouldn’t be tested by anyone in the WAC and will be a virtual lock to go undefeated should they win on Saturday. Oregon is the most likely team to go undefeated among the BCS conference schools. Although, I think a 62.1% chance of going undefeated represents an overestimate. Ohio State, Nebraska and Alabama will have a tougher time going undefeated with Nebraska and Alabama facing the added challenge of a potential conference championship game to end the season.

Enjoy the weekend!

The week 3 rankings can be found at my personal website:

1 comment:

  1. so what do we think of georgia? 18th ranked in your ratings.without aj green for one more game. do they bounce back and have another 9 win season or are we talking 7-5?