Hey football fans!
Last weekend featured a lighter schedule of big games compared to week
11. The four remaining unbeaten title contenders, Alabama, Florida State, Ohio
State and Baylor, won comfortably over overmatched opponents. Elsewhere,
Stanford was upset by USC in a game that I pegged as closer than most people
expected and Auburn defeated Georgia with a last-second miracle.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 12:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Florida State
|
38.5
|
10 – 0
|
-1.6
|
0.26
|
11.9 – 0.1
|
0.941
|
|
2
|
Baylor
|
33.1
|
9 – 0
|
0.9
|
0.23
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.711
|
|
3
|
Oregon
|
32.9
|
9 – 1
|
3.1
|
0.17
|
10.9 – 1.1
|
0.728
|
|
4
|
Alabama
|
30.4
|
10 – 0
|
2.2
|
0.14
|
11.8 – 0.2
|
0.604
|
|
5
|
Ohio State
|
25.8
|
10 – 0
|
-0.8
|
0.36
|
11.8 – 0.2
|
0.633
|
|
6
|
Wisconsin
|
24.4
|
8 – 2
|
1.5
|
0.10
|
9.9 – 2.1
|
0.864
|
|
7
|
Clemson
|
22.7
|
9 – 1
|
2.0
|
0.07
|
10.6 – 1.4
|
0.547
|
|
8
|
Arizona State
|
22.7
|
8 – 2
|
8.1
|
0.07
|
9.5 – 2.5
|
0.130
|
|
9
|
Missouri
|
22.1
|
8 – 1
|
4.7
|
0.16
|
10.3 – 1.7
|
0.120
|
|
10
|
Stanford
|
21.5
|
8 – 2
|
8.2
|
0.05
|
9.9 – 2.1
|
0.831
|
The top ten remain the same, albeit in a slight different order, after a
rather uneventful weekend. Florida State is approaching the best rating I’ve
seen in the eight years that I’ve been ranking college football teams. It is
hard to get a handle on just how good they are because they’ve played a much
weaker schedule than the other title contenders but, for some context, their
closest victory was by 14 over Boston College and seven of their ten victories
have been by 30 or more. Impressive!
Here are the top 14 teams in the current BCS standings and the
probability that they win all of their remaining games:
|
BCS Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
4
|
Alabama
|
0.604
|
|
2
|
1
|
Florida State
|
0.941
|
|
3
|
5
|
Ohio State
|
0.633
|
|
4
|
2
|
Baylor
|
0.711
|
|
5
|
3
|
Oregon
|
0.728
|
|
6
|
15
|
Auburn
|
0.158
|
|
7
|
7
|
Clemson
|
0.547
|
|
8
|
9
|
Missouri
|
0.120
|
|
9
|
10
|
Stanford
|
0.831
|
|
10
|
11
|
Oklahoma State
|
0.172
|
|
11
|
14
|
South Carolina
|
0.328
|
|
12
|
13
|
Texas A&M
|
0.137
|
|
13
|
21
|
Michigan State
|
0.129
|
|
14
|
19
|
UCLA
|
0.072
|
At this point, the top four are all more likely to finish undefeated
than not and there is a 69% chance that three or more finish undefeated. At
this point, it is a near certainty that Florida State will finish undefeated
but it will be interested to see who of the other three finish the season
unscathed.
It will be a light weekend for Alabama, Florida State and Ohio State,
while Baylor faces another tough test against Oklahoma State. I have the Bears
favored by about 10 and a victory over the Cowboys might be enough to push them
past Ohio State in the BCS standings. There are several other top-25 matchups,
including two big ones in the Sec. Here is a little more information:
- #2 (in my rankings) Baylor @ #11 Oklahoma State, Baylor favored by 9.5, 76% chance of winning
- #8 Arizona State @ #19 UCLA, Arizona State favored by 4.1, 62% chance of winning
- #9 Missouri @ #23 Mississippi, Missouri favored by 4.6, 64% chance of winning
- #13 Texas A&M @ #12 LSU, LSU favored by 3.65, 61% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 13!
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