Hey football fans! I can’t believe there are only four weeks left in the
season! Crunch time!
Last weekend was put-up or shut-up time for three title contenders.
Baylor and Alabama passed their tests with victories over Oklahoma and LSU,
respectively, while Oregon suffered their first loss of the season to Stanford.
It is probably a bit strong to say that Oregon has been eliminated from title
contention but they will definitely need some help and are no longer a lock to be
invited to a BCS game.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 11:
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
1
|
Florida State
|
37.0
|
9 – 0
|
-1.8
|
0.28
|
11.9 – 0.1
|
0.916
|
2
|
Oregon
|
33.0
|
8 – 1
|
3.2
|
0.16
|
10.9 – 1.1
|
0.763
|
3
|
Baylor
|
33.0
|
8 – 0
|
1.0
|
0.24
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.711
|
4
|
Alabama
|
31.1
|
9 – 0
|
2.2
|
0.14
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.583
|
5
|
Ohio State
|
25.8
|
9 – 0
|
-0.6
|
0.39
|
11.8 – 0.2
|
0.635
|
6
|
Arizona State
|
22.4
|
7 – 2
|
7.8
|
0.08
|
9.3 – 2.7
|
0.151
|
7
|
Missouri
|
22.3
|
9 – 1
|
4.9
|
0.16
|
10.3 – 1.7
|
0.113
|
8
|
Wisconsin
|
22.2
|
7 – 2
|
1.8
|
0.11
|
9.8 – 2.2
|
0.749
|
9
|
Stanford
|
22.0
|
8 – 1
|
8.4
|
0.06
|
10.5 – 1.5
|
0.375
|
10
|
Clemson
|
21.4
|
8 – 1
|
2.0
|
0.08
|
10.3 – 1.7
|
0.378
|
The gap between Florida State and everyone else is wider than ever
thanks to the Ducks loss against Stanford. Some might find it a bit unsettling
that Oregon didn’t drop from #2 but it is worth pointing out that they lost a
full 2 points off their rating, which is a big drop this late in the season.
LSU was the only team to drop out of the top 10 (down to #11), with Stanford
taking their place after last week’s impressive victory.
Here are the top 14 teams in the current BCS standings and the
probability that they win all of their remaining games:
BCS Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
1
|
4
|
Alabama
|
0.583
|
2
|
1
|
Florida State
|
0.916
|
3
|
5
|
Ohio State
|
0.635
|
4
|
9
|
Stanford
|
0.375
|
5
|
3
|
Baylor
|
0.711
|
6
|
2
|
Oregon
|
0.763
|
7
|
17
|
Auburn
|
0.072
|
8
|
10
|
Clemson
|
0.378
|
9
|
7
|
Missouri
|
0.113
|
10
|
14
|
South Carolina
|
0.278
|
11
|
12
|
Texas A&M
|
0.137
|
12
|
13
|
Oklahoma State
|
0.081
|
13
|
20
|
UCLA
|
0.031
|
14
|
44
|
Fresno State
|
0.338
|
It is now clear that Florida State will play Alabama if they both finish
the season undefeated. Florida State is in excellent shape, with a 92% chance
of finishing undefeated, but the Tide still have some work to do and have a 42%
chance of losing at least one of their last few games. There seems to be a
consensus among fans and the media that Alabama and Florida State are the top
two teams in the country. This is likely to limit the controversy if more than
two AQ conference teams finish undefeated (there is currently a 68% chance
that this will happen) but it is worth pointing out that I actually have Baylor
ranked ahead of Alabama. The Bears haven’t received much respect up to this
point but that should change with a tough closing stretch against Texas Tech,
Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas.
The four major undefeated title contenders have relatively easy games
this week (at least compared to last week) but Stanford plays a
sneaky-difficult game against USC. The Trojans dropped off the radar when Lane
Kiffin was fired but have put together a decent season and could give Stanford
a test. There are several other top-25 match-ups that don’t have title implications
but will help sort out the picture for the second-tier bowl games. Here is a
little more information:
- #9 (in my rankings) Stanford @ #19 USC, Stanford favored by 3.4, 60% chance of winning
- #13 Oklahoma State @ #25 Texas, Oklahoma State favored by 1.8, 55% chance of winning
- #15 Washington @ #20 UCLA, Washington favored by 0.5, 52% chance of winning
- #16 Georgia @ #17 Auburn, Auburn favored by 2.5, 58% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 12!
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