Friday, October 25, 2013

Week 8 Rankings



Hey football fans! I’m running a little late this week but it’s not Saturday and late is better than never.

We’re well into the meat of the schedule at this point with big matchups on a weekly basis. Florida State turned in the most impressive performance of the weekend with a 51 – 14 victory over previously undefeated Clemson. Elsewhere, Central Florida pulled the big upset of the weekend, giving Louisville their first loss of the season, 38 – 35, while UCLA also suffered their first loss of the season in a 24 – 10 loss against Stanford.

Here are the updated top 10 after week 8:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

SOS1

SOS2

E(FR)

P(WARG)
1
Florida State
35.6
6 – 0
-1.1
0.24
11.8 – 0.2
0.78
2
Oregon
33.6
7 – 0
4.2
0.14
11.5 – 0.5
0.51
3
Baylor
30.2
6 – 0
0.9
0.26
11.4 – 0.6
0.55
4
Alabama
29.4
7 – 0
2.5
0.14
11.4 – 0.6
0.39
5
LSU
23.0
6 – 2
5.1
0.05
9.0 – 3.0
0.18
6
Wisconsin
21.2
5 – 2
1.5
0.16
9.3 – 2.7
0.43
7
Arizona State
21.2
5 – 2
8.0
0.08
8.7 – 3.3
0.04
8
Missouri
21.1
7 – 0
5.0
0.14
10.8 – 1.2
0.07
9
Stanford
20.7
6 – 1
8.5
0.05
9.3 – 2.7
0.06
10
Ohio State
20.3
7 – 0
-0.3
0.35
11.3 – 0.7
0.32

We have a new #1! Florida State jumped Oregon after their big win over Clemson. Oregon remains a few points clear of Baylor and Alabama but are a full two points behind Florida State. Clemson dropped out of the top 10 after being blown out by Florida State and were replaced by Arizona State, who thumped Washington 53 – 24.

Here are the top 14 teams in the current BCS standings and the probability that they win all of their remaining games:


BCS Rank

Rank

Team

P(WARG)
1
4
Alabama
0.390
2
1
Florida State
0.780
3
2
Oregon
0.511
4
10
Ohio State
0.318
5
8
Missouri
0.065
6
9
Stanford
0.059
7
17
Miami
0.004
8
3
Baylor
0.551
9
11
Clemson
0.276
10
31
Texas Tech
0.004
11
24
Auburn
0.021
12
14
UCLA
0.001
13
5
LSU
0.175
14
28
Virginia Tech
0.006

It has been clear for a while that the major contenders are Florida State, Oregon, Alabama, Ohio State and Baylor. Four of those teams compose the top four in the BCS standings. All four have at least a 30% chance of finishing undefeated with Oregon and Florida State in the best shape. Baylor continues to get no respect due to their schedule but has a better chance of finishing undefeated than everyone but Florida State and Oregon. They will presumably jump Stanford if they keep winning but it will be interesting to see where they end up if more than two teams finish undefeated.

This week’s games are not as exciting as the last few weeks. UCLA vs. Oregon features two top 15 teams but is not expected to be a close game. The best game of the weekend is South Carolina at Missouri, which also features two top 15 teams, with Missouri favored by about a touchdown. Here are a few games to keep an eye on:

  • #15 (in my rankings) South Carolina @ #8 Missouri, Missouri favored by 6.6, 68% chance of winning
  • #14 UCLA @ #2 Oregon, Oregon favored by 19.1, 92% chance of winning
  • #9 Stanford @ #26 Oregon State, Stanford favored by 4.8, 64% chance of winning
  • #31 Texas Tech @ #23 Oklahoma, Oklahoma favored by 5.5, 66% chance of winning

As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:


Enjoy the week 9!

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