Hey football fans!
Boy, week 7 was a lot of fun, wasn’t it? Oregon solidified their hold on
number 1 with a three touchdown victory over Washington. Missouri pulled the
big upset of the weekend with a 15 point victory over Georgia in Athens.
Meanwhile, LSU and Texas A&M picked up solid victories in top-25 matchups against
Florida and Mississippi, respectively.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 7:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Oregon
|
35.5
|
6 – 0
|
4.5
|
0.14
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.64
|
|
2
|
Florida State
|
33.0
|
5 – 0
|
0.1
|
0.18
|
11.4 – 0.6
|
0.48
|
|
3
|
Alabama
|
26.9
|
6 – 0
|
2.0
|
0.15
|
11.3 – 0.7
|
0.31
|
|
4
|
Baylor
|
26.3
|
5 – 0
|
1.2
|
0.27
|
11.1 – 0.9
|
0.38
|
|
5
|
LSU
|
24.3
|
6 – 1
|
5.3
|
0.06
|
9.8 – 2.2
|
0.14
|
|
6
|
Clemson
|
23.2
|
6 – 0
|
2.6
|
0.11
|
10.6 – 1.4
|
0.09
|
|
7
|
Ohio State
|
21.1
|
6 – 0
|
0.0
|
0.35
|
11.2 – 0.8
|
0.32
|
|
8
|
Wisconsin
|
20.1
|
4 – 2
|
1.7
|
0.18
|
9.1 – 2.9
|
0.32
|
|
9
|
Missouri
|
20.0
|
6 – 0
|
5.3
|
0.13
|
10.3 – 1.7
|
0.04
|
|
10
|
Stanford
|
19.8
|
5 – 1
|
8.7
|
0.05
|
8.9 – 3.1
|
0.02
|
There was a little bit of shuffling in the top 6 but the teams remain
the same. Oregon and Florida State appear to be head and shoulders ahead of the
rest, while there isn’t much separation between Alabama, Baylor, LSU and
Clemson. In the bottom half of the top 10, Georgia, Washington and Louisville
dropped out of the top 10 due to losses against Missouri and Oregon and an
unimpressive victory for the Cardinals against Rutgers. Missouri, Wisconsin and
Ohio State filled the void thanks to big victories for Missouri and Wisconsin
over Georgia and Northwestern, respectively, and an off weak for the Buckeyes.
Here are the top 10 teams with the best chance of finishing undefeated:
|
P(WARG) Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
11
|
Louisville
|
0.716
|
|
2
|
1
|
Oregon
|
0.637
|
|
3
|
2
|
Florida State
|
0.480
|
|
4
|
4
|
Baylor
|
0.376
|
|
5
|
7
|
Ohio State
|
0.317
|
|
6
|
3
|
Alabama
|
0.309
|
|
7
|
44
|
Fresno State
|
0.188
|
|
8
|
6
|
Clemson
|
0.094
|
|
9
|
73
|
Northern Illinois
|
0.086
|
|
10
|
9
|
Missouri
|
0.038
|
Missouri replaces Stanford in the top 10 after their victory over
Georgia and Stanford’s upset loss to Utah. Otherwise, the top 10 are
essentially the same as last week. At this point, there are only fourteen
remaining undefeated teams in the FBS division. We’ll lose one more from this
list on Saturday when Clemson plays for Florida State, while Missouri will face
a tough test against Florida and still-undefeated UCLA will have their hands
full against Stanford.
This week’s headliner is Florida State vs. Clemson in an ACC elimination
game. The winner will remain undefeated and have a good chance of finishing the
season undefeated, while the loser will likely be eliminated from national
championship contention. There are several other big games on the schedule this
weekend. Here is a run-down:
#2 (in my rankings) Florida State @ #6 Clemson, Florida State favored by
7.2, 71% chance of winning
#5 LSU @ #22 Mississippi, LSU favored by 7.7, 72% chance of winning
#16 Florida @ #9 Missouri, Missouri favored by 4.5, 63% chance of
winning
#14 UCLA @ #10 Stanford, Stanford favored by 3.7, 61% chance of winning
#12 Washington @ #15 Arizona State, Arizona State favored by 1.1, 53%
chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 8!
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