Bowl Preview

Hey football fans. It’s almost bowl season! You know, that time of year where we celebrate the history and tradition of college football by watching 70 of the best college football teams in the land duke it out for the right to say that they are the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl or Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas Champion. What would we do without corporate sponsors?

Before we get to the bowls, let’s first take a look at my top ten after the last weekend of the regular season:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	SOS1	SOS2
1	LSU	31.12	13-0	6.66	0.019
2	Alabama	28.08	11-1	3.77	0.048
3	Oklahoma State	27.32	11-1	7.07	0.061
4	Oregon	25.80	11-2	5.19	0.031
5	Stanford	25.32	11-1	4.81	0.082
6	Wisconsin	24.94	11-2	0.45	0.124
7	Oklahoma	24.07	9-3	6.53	0.060
8	Boise State	20.25	11-1	-3.88	0.393
9	Florida State	17.74	8-4	1.10	0.208
10	USC	17.71	10-2	6.03	0.074

The top 10 remain the same but the order is slightly different. Oklahoma State made the biggest move after their victory over Oklahoma. There was a lot of controversy surrounding the decision to include Alabama in the BCS Championship game over Oklahoma State but, as you can see, the teams were pretty even. I would have preferred to see Oklahoma State get a shot at LSU but this is hardly the greatest injustice of the BCS era. USC is, of course, the only team in the top 10 (top 70?) not playing in a bowl game because of probation. I’ve read several stories predicting them as a national title contender next season but that assumes Matt Barkley will return for his senior year and that is hardly a given.

Below you can find my bowl preview, which includes the favorite, predicted line and probability of an upset in each bowl. The table pretty much speaks for itself but I do want to point out a few things:

• I have LSU favored by 3 in the national title game but this does not include the home field advantage that they will have because the game is played in New Orleans
• The BCS games are even matchups, for the most part, but it’s funny to see that the BCS game I’m predicting to be the closest is the game that people are least likely to watch (Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs. Clemson)
• I’m amazed that regional companies like Belk or Beef ‘O’ Brady’s have enough money to sponsor a bowl… it must be cheaper than I thought. I think bowl naming rights would make an excellent Christmas gift. Who wouldn’t watch the Joe Koopmeiners Bowl?

Bowl	Favorite	Underdog	Line	P(Upset)	Date
BCS Championship Game	LSU	Alabama	3.04	0.416	1/9/12
Orange Bowl	West Virginia	Clemson	0.3	0.492	1/4/12
Sugar Bowl	Michigan	Virginia Tech	5.71	0.346	1/3/12
Fiesta Bowl	Oklahoma State	Stanford	2	0.445	1/2/12
Rose Bowl	Oregon	Wisconsin	0.86	0.476	1/2/12
Cotton Bowl	Arkansas	Kansas State	10.02	0.243	1/6/12
Gator Bowl	Ohio State	Florida	0.25	0.493	1/2/12
Capital One Bowl	South Carolina	Nebraska	2.25	0.438	1/2/12
Outback Bowl	Georgia	Michigan State	0.43	0.488	1/2/12
GoDaddy.com Bowl	Northern Illinois	Arkansas State	1.6	0.456	1/8/12
BBVA Compass Bowl	Pittsburgh	SMU	7.36	0.305	1/7/12
TicketCity Bowl	Houston	Penn State	7.05	0.312	1/2/12
Chick-fil-A Bowl	Auburn	Virginia	3.44	0.406	12/31/11
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl	Illinois	UCLA	4.76	0.371	12/31/11
Liberty Bowl	Cincinnati	Vanderbilt	3.09	0.415	12/31/11
Sun Bowl	Utah	Georgia Tech	1.21	0.467	12/31/11
Meineke Car Care Bowl	Texas A&M	Northwestern	14.54	0.156	12/31/11
Insight Bowl	Oklahoma	Iowa	17.49	0.112	12/30/11
Music City Bowl	Mississippi State	Wake Forest	9.73	0.25	12/30/11
Pinstripe Bowl	Rutgers	Iowa State	4.13	0.387	12/30/11
Armed Forces Bowl	BYU	Tulsa	2.14	0.441	12/30/11
Alamo Bowl	Baylor	Washington	7.52	0.301	12/29/11
Champs Sports Bowl	Florida State	Notre Dame	1.17	0.468	12/29/11
Holiday Bowl	Texas	California	4.12	0.387	12/28/11
Military Bowl	Toledo	Air Force	3.15	0.413	12/28/11
Belk Bowl	North Carolina State	Louisville	0.4	0.489	12/27/11
Little Ceasers Bowl	Purdue	Western Michigan	1.67	0.454	12/27/11
Independence Bowl	Missouri	North Carolina	8.52	0.277	12/26/11
Hawaii Bowl	Southern Mississippi	Nevada	7.03	0.313	12/24/11
Las Vegas Bowl	Boise State	Arizona State	8.86	0.269	12/22/11
Poinsettia Bowl	TCU	Louisiana Tech	14.74	0.153	12/21/11
Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl	Florida International	Marshall	3.98	0.391	12/20/11
New Orleans Bowl	San Diego State	Louisiana-Lafayette	9.44	0.256	12/17/11
Idaho Potato Bowl	Ohio	Utah State	1.69	0.453	12/17/11
New Mexico Bowl	Temple	Wyoming	12.32	0.196	12/17/11

As always, the full ranking can be found at my personal website: www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk14_rankings_2011.pdf