Hey football fans!
Week 3 brought us our biggest match-up of the season so far in Alabama’s
49 – 42 victory over Texas A&M in College Station. Meanwhile, Oregon
continued their early season domination with a 59 – 14 win over Tennessee,
while UCLA and Arizona State made me look like a profit by defeating Big 10
foes Nebraska and Wisconsin, respectively. Unfortunately, Arizona State’s
victory is marred in controversy thanks to the less than stellar officiating of
the Pac 12 officiating crew.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 3:
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
1
|
Oregon
|
37.7
|
3-0
|
4.9
|
0.179
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.725
|
2
|
Florida State
|
29.9
|
2-0
|
-1.3
|
0.290
|
11.4 – 0.6
|
0.466
|
3
|
Alabama
|
28.8
|
2-0
|
2.3
|
0.164
|
11.4 – 0.6
|
0.375
|
4
|
Georgia
|
23.0
|
1-1
|
8.5
|
0.070
|
9.1 – 2.9
|
0.035
|
5
|
LSU
|
20.9
|
3-0
|
6.7
|
0.028
|
8.8 – 3.2
|
0.004
|
6
|
Baylor
|
20.6
|
2-0
|
1.2
|
0.232
|
10.1 – 1.9
|
0.087
|
7
|
Oklahoma State
|
20.5
|
3-0
|
3.6
|
0.263
|
10.3 – 1.7
|
0.127
|
8
|
Mississippi
|
19.8
|
3-0
|
5.3
|
0.054
|
9.4 – 2.6
|
0.008
|
9
|
Clemson
|
19.7
|
2-0
|
3.6
|
0.112
|
9.8 – 2.2
|
0.030
|
10
|
Washington
|
19.6
|
2-0
|
7.2
|
0.039
|
9.0 – 3.0
|
0.004
|
The big story here is Oregon, who is now almost eight points better than
the next best team in the country, Florida State. The Ducks probably aren’t
that good but this illustrates just how dominant they’ve been in the first
three weeks of the season. Otherwise, the top 10 is very similar to last week with
only Oklahoma State and Ole Miss jumping into the top 10 to replace Stanford
and Michigan, who both posted closer than expected wins over weak opponents in
week 3.
Here are the top 10 teams with the best chance of finishing undefeated:
P(WARG) Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
1
|
1
|
Oregon
|
0.725
|
2
|
16
|
Louisville
|
0.523
|
3
|
2
|
Florida State
|
0.466
|
4
|
3
|
Alabama
|
0.375
|
5
|
7
|
Oklahoma State
|
0.127
|
6
|
45
|
Fresno State
|
0.093
|
7
|
6
|
Baylor
|
0.087
|
8
|
20
|
Ohio State
|
0.031
|
9
|
9
|
Clemson
|
0.030
|
10
|
13
|
Oklahoma
|
0.025
|
Oregon currently has an incredible 73% chance of finishing undefeated.
This is almost certainly an overestimate but illustrates that they will be
heavy favorites in every game for the rest of the season. Elsewhere,
Louisville, Florida State and Alabama are all in great shape and there is a
substantial drop from Alabama (38% chance of finishing undefeated) to the next
most likely team to finish undefeated (Oklahoma State – 13% chance of finishing
undefeated).
This weekend’s headliner is Arizona State vs. Stanford. Most would be
surprised to hear that I have Arizona State (#18) ranked ahead of Stanford
(#22) but Stanford is still favored because the game is at Stanford. Otherwise,
this weekend’s slate is pretty lean but there are a couple other interesting
games, if you look for them:
- #18 (in my rankings) Arizona State @ #22 Stanford, Stanford favored by 2.2, 57% chance of winning
- #37 Tennessee @ #19 Florida, Florida favored by 9.6, 79% chance of winning
- #38 Michigan State @ #36 Notre Dame, Notre Dame favored by 4.2, 64% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 4!
