Hey football fans! It has been a crazy week for me but I thought I’d try
to get this post out before the big games kick-off tonight.
Last week was a bit of a let-down, especially compared to what we’re in
store for this weekend. Florida State predictably made short work of Miami,
41-14. Elsewhere, Georgia defeated Florida 23 – 20 in a competitive game
between two teams that are underrated in the major polls. There wasn’t much
else to report other than the crazy finish to Nebraska vs. Northwestern.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 10:
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
1
|
Florida State
|
35.7
|
8 – 0
|
-1.0
|
0.24
|
11.9 – 0.1
|
0.85
|
2
|
Oregon
|
34.9
|
8 – 0
|
3.4
|
0.18
|
11.7 – 0.3
|
0.62
|
3
|
Baylor
|
32.0
|
7 – 0
|
1.2
|
0.25
|
11.6 – 0.4
|
0.64
|
4
|
Alabama
|
30.4
|
8 – 0
|
2.1
|
0.16
|
11.6 – 0.4
|
0.50
|
5
|
Ohio State
|
25.6
|
9 – 0
|
-0.7
|
0.38
|
11.8 – 0.2
|
0.61
|
6
|
Arizona State
|
23.2
|
6 – 2
|
7.7
|
0.09
|
9.2 – 2.8
|
0.09
|
7
|
Wisconsin
|
22.2
|
6 – 2
|
1.7
|
0.11
|
9.6 – 2.4
|
0.60
|
8
|
Clemson
|
21.9
|
8 – 1
|
2.4
|
0.09
|
10.3 – 1.7
|
0.41
|
9
|
LSU
|
21.5
|
7 – 2
|
4.6
|
0.05
|
8.8 – 3.2
|
0.12
|
10
|
Missouri
|
21.3
|
8 – 1
|
5.0
|
0.15
|
10.2 – 1.8
|
0.09
|
Florida State and Oregon continued their flip-flopping routine. I
suspect that this will continue for the rest of the season. The only team to
drop out of the top 10 was Stanford, who dropped from 9 to 11, and were
replaced by Clemson, who improved from 11 to 8.
Here are the top 14 teams in the current BCS standings and the
probability that they win all of their remaining games:
BCS Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
1
|
4
|
Alabama
|
0.495
|
2
|
1
|
Florida State
|
0.854
|
3
|
2
|
Oregon
|
0.620
|
4
|
5
|
Ohio State
|
0.612
|
5
|
11
|
Stanford
|
0.059
|
6
|
3
|
Baylor
|
0.639
|
7
|
8
|
Clemson
|
0.406
|
8
|
10
|
Missouri
|
0.091
|
9
|
25
|
Auburn
|
0.029
|
10
|
23
|
Oklahoma
|
0.011
|
11
|
26
|
Miami
|
0.022
|
12
|
13
|
South Carolina
|
0.226
|
13
|
9
|
LSU
|
0.118
|
14
|
14
|
Oklahoma State
|
0.065
|
We’ll have a bit more BCS clarity after this weekend. Stanford plays
Oregon and Baylor plays Oklahoma tonight, while Alabama plays LSU on Saturday.
This weekend will either narrow the field down to a couple of everyone will
win, in which case we’ll have a giant mess on our hands. At this point, four
teams (Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor) are more likely to finish
undefeated than not and Alabama has a 50/50 chance. Furthermore, there is about
a 70% chance that at least three of those five will finish the season
undefeated. Fun!
This weekend is all about the heavy weights with three title contender
facing a top-25 opponent. Here is a little more information for each game:
- #2 (in my rankings) Oregon @ #11 Stanford, Oregon favored by 11.9, 82% chance of winning
- #3 Baylor @ #23 Oklahoma, Baylor favored by 14.7, 87% chance of winning
- #9 LSU @ #4 Alabama, Alabama favored by 11.4, 81% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 11!
