Hi football fans. I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving! There is a
lot to go over after I dropped the ball last week.
Two weeks ago, there were four undefeated teams fighting for the top
spot in the BCS. Now there is only one. First, Alabama lost at home to Texas
A&M. This was certainly an upset but I’ve had Texas A&M in the top 10
for most of the season and there were probably one of the most underrated teams
in the country before defeating Alabama. Last weekend, Stanford and Baylor
ended Oregon and Kansas State’s undefeated season, leaving Notre Dame as the
last remaining undefeated national title contender.
Here is my updated top 10 after
all the carnage:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Alabama
|
29.83
|
10-1
|
10.99 – 1.01
|
0.775
|
|
2
|
Oregon
|
28.63
|
10-1
|
10.78 – 1.22
|
0.705
|
|
3
|
Florida State
|
25.11
|
10-1
|
10.76 – 1.24
|
0.719
|
|
4
|
Oklahoma
|
23.01
|
8-2
|
9.33 – 2.67
|
0.441
|
|
5
|
Kansas State
|
22.60
|
10-1
|
10.75 – 1.25
|
0.748
|
|
6
|
Texas A&M
|
22.59
|
9-2
|
9.89 – 2.11
|
0.891
|
|
7
|
Oklahoma State
|
21.05
|
7-3
|
8.06 – 3.94
|
0.257
|
|
8
|
Notre Dame
|
20.77
|
11-1
|
11.51 – 0.49
|
0.506
|
|
9
|
Georgia
|
19.78
|
10-1
|
10.84 – 1.16
|
0.511
|
|
10
|
Clemson
|
19.49
|
10-1
|
10.64 – 1.36
|
0.582
|
The top five are the same as two weeks ago, although, Oklahoma and
Kansas State flip-flopped, but only Texas A&M and Notre Dame remain from 6 –
10. Florida, LSU and South Carolina, who were in the top 10 two weeks ago, have
now been replaced by Oklahoma State, Georgia and Clemson. It is also worth noting
that Alabama has come back to the pack after their loss to the Aggies and are
now only a point ahead of Oregon.
Here are the top 14 in the current BCS rankings along with the
probability that they win all remaining games:
|
BCS Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
8
|
Notre Dame
|
0.506
|
|
2
|
1
|
Alabama
|
0.775
|
|
3
|
9
|
Georgia
|
0.511
|
|
4
|
12
|
Florida
|
0.145
|
|
5
|
2
|
Oregon
|
0.705
|
|
6
|
5
|
Kansas State
|
0.748
|
|
7
|
11
|
LSU
|
0.830
|
|
8
|
15
|
Stanford
|
0.397
|
|
9
|
6
|
Texas A&M
|
0.891
|
|
10
|
3
|
Florida State
|
0.719
|
|
11
|
10
|
Clemson
|
0.582
|
|
12
|
14
|
South Carolina
|
0.356
|
|
13
|
4
|
Oklahoma
|
0.441
|
|
14
|
19
|
Nebraska
|
0.556
|
Notre Dame controls their own destiny but still have a 50% chance of
falling to USC on Saturday night. That said, my rankings don’t know that Matt
Barkley is out of the gaming, meaning that Notre Dame is probably a bigger
favorite than the rankings suggest. Should Notre Dame win, they will likely
face the SEC champion in the national title game unless something crazy happens
tomorrow. Elsewhere, Oregon and Kansas State are likely to win out. Although,
Oregon needs some help to play in the Pac 12 title game and this will likely be
held against them in the final poll. Finally, Florida would likely be the
biggest beneficiary of a Notre Dame loss but first have to beat Florida State
on Saturday. The rankings have Florida State favored by about 10, suggesting
that this will be a tough test for the Gators.
The obvious headliner this weekend is Notre Dame vs. USC. A Notre Dame
victory puts them in the national title game but a loss opens the door for more
controversy. Elsewhere, Florida/Florida will have potential national title
implications and there is also a full slate of rivalry games such as Ohio State
vs. Michigan, Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, Washington vs. Washington State,
etc. I hope everyone enjoys the weekend!
Full ranking can be found at my personal website: http://www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/index.php?page=sports
