Hey football fans! I’m taking it down to the wire but I did want to post
my pre-season ranking before the season kicks-off this evening.
Below you can find information on my pre-season rankings. I rank teams
using a Bayesian hierarchical model. Bayesian statistics requires that I
specify a prior distribution, which is essentially a best-guess as to the
relative strength of each team before any game results are observed. My
pre-season rankings are this ‘best-guess’ and are an aggregate ranking from
various pre-season rankings that can be found on the internet. Throughout the
season, my model will update these rankings as game results are observed, but,
unlike the polls, I take a formal statistical approach to updating the
rankings, rather than the haphazard approach taken by the pollsters. The take
away message from all of this is that I only present the pre-season rankings to
give an idea of where we’re starting from and that these shouldn’t be taken too
seriously because they will change dramatically over the first month of the
season as game results are observed.
Here are the top 10 teams from the pre-season rankings along with their
pre-season rating (points above average), two measures of their strength of
schedule, their expected final record and probability of going undefeated:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Florida State
|
25.0
|
0-0
|
2.9
|
0.191
|
10.5 – 1.5
|
0.147
|
|
2
|
Alabama
|
24.6
|
0-0
|
3.1
|
0.106
|
10.1 – 1.9
|
0.057
|
|
3
|
Oregon
|
23.8
|
0-0
|
4.1
|
0.097
|
9.9 – 2.1
|
0.045
|
|
4
|
UCLA
|
23.3
|
0-0
|
8.0
|
0.083
|
9.6 – 2.4
|
0.026
|
|
5
|
Oklahoma
|
22.5
|
0-0
|
3.9
|
0.204
|
10.2 – 1.8
|
0.123
|
|
6
|
Michigan State
|
22.4
|
0-0
|
0.6
|
0.134
|
10.0 – 2.0
|
0.047
|
|
7
|
Ohio State
|
22.4
|
0-0
|
3.5
|
0.186
|
10.2 – 1.8
|
0.075
|
|
8
|
Auburn
|
22.2
|
0-0
|
7.6
|
0.026
|
8.6 – 3.4
|
0.005
|
|
9
|
South Carolina
|
21.9
|
0-0
|
5.9
|
0.073
|
9.3 – 2.7
|
0.016
|
|
10
|
Georgia
|
21.6
|
0-0
|
4.2
|
0.105
|
9.6 – 2.4
|
0.022
|
Florida State is the unanimous number 1 and returns several key starts,
most notably Jameis Winston, from their national title team a year ago. I
conservatively set a unanimous number 1 ranked team to be 25 points above
average at the beginning of the season but, in reality, Florida State is likely
much better than that. For example, the number 1 ranked team has been at least
30 points above average at the end of the last four seasons and Florida State
finished the season 37 points above average a year ago. Outside of Florida
State, the top 10 includes four SEC teams (Alabama, Auburn, South Carolina and
Georgia), two each from the Big Ten (Michigan State and Ohio State) and Pac12
(Oregon and UCLA) and Oklahoma from the Big 12. I should also note that these
rankings are based on pre-season polls that didn’t know about Braxton Miller’s
injury and Ohio State may therefore be overrated but my guess is that they’ll
be a top 20 team without him.
Another way to look at the pre-season rankings is to consider the top 10
teams with the best chance of finishing undefeated:
|
P(WARG) Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
42
|
Marshall
|
0.489
|
|
2
|
1
|
Florida State
|
0.147
|
|
3
|
5
|
Oklahoma
|
0.123
|
|
4
|
7
|
Ohio State
|
0.075
|
|
5
|
12
|
Baylor
|
0.075
|
|
6
|
2
|
Alabama
|
0.057
|
|
7
|
6
|
Michigan State
|
0.047
|
|
8
|
3
|
Oregon
|
0.045
|
|
9
|
4
|
UCLA
|
0.026
|
|
10
|
38
|
Boise State
|
0.026
|
Finishing the season undefeated was of the utmost importance in the BCS
era but it remains to be seen what the new playoff selection committee will
emphasize when picking the four playoff participants. They claim that strength
of schedule will be very important but my guess is that finishing undefeated
will still be the best way to assure participation in the playoff. Now, to
immediately contradict myself, Marshall has the best chance of finishing
undefeated but I don’t think they can be considered real playoff contenders. In
this sense, strength of schedule will likely matter but Marshall wouldn’t have
been a contender in the BCS era either. Amongst the contenders, Florida State
has the best chance of finishing undefeated and may actually be more likely to
finish undefeated than the numbers suggest. The only other point worth
mentioning is that Baylor is more likely to finish undefeated than their
ranking would suggest. This illustrates the advantage of not having to play a
conference championship game, which results in one less tough game than will be
played by teams in the SEC, Big Ten ACC and Pac 12. Oklahoma also benefits from
the lack of a Big 12 title game and are almost 3 times more likely to finish
undefeated than Oregon and UCLA even though they are ranked below both teams.
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the first weekend of the season!
