Hey football fans! I’m running a little late this week but it’s not
Saturday and late is better than never.
We’re well into the meat of the schedule at this point with big matchups
on a weekly basis. Florida State turned in the most impressive performance of
the weekend with a 51 – 14 victory over previously undefeated Clemson.
Elsewhere, Central Florida pulled the big upset of the weekend, giving
Louisville their first loss of the season, 38 – 35, while UCLA also suffered
their first loss of the season in a 24 – 10 loss against Stanford.
Here are the updated top 10 after week 8:
|
Rank
|
Team
|
Rating
|
Record
|
SOS1
|
SOS2
|
E(FR)
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
Florida State
|
35.6
|
6 – 0
|
-1.1
|
0.24
|
11.8 – 0.2
|
0.78
|
|
2
|
Oregon
|
33.6
|
7 – 0
|
4.2
|
0.14
|
11.5 – 0.5
|
0.51
|
|
3
|
Baylor
|
30.2
|
6 – 0
|
0.9
|
0.26
|
11.4 – 0.6
|
0.55
|
|
4
|
Alabama
|
29.4
|
7 – 0
|
2.5
|
0.14
|
11.4 – 0.6
|
0.39
|
|
5
|
LSU
|
23.0
|
6 – 2
|
5.1
|
0.05
|
9.0 – 3.0
|
0.18
|
|
6
|
Wisconsin
|
21.2
|
5 – 2
|
1.5
|
0.16
|
9.3 – 2.7
|
0.43
|
|
7
|
Arizona State
|
21.2
|
5 – 2
|
8.0
|
0.08
|
8.7 – 3.3
|
0.04
|
|
8
|
Missouri
|
21.1
|
7 – 0
|
5.0
|
0.14
|
10.8 – 1.2
|
0.07
|
|
9
|
Stanford
|
20.7
|
6 – 1
|
8.5
|
0.05
|
9.3 – 2.7
|
0.06
|
|
10
|
Ohio State
|
20.3
|
7 – 0
|
-0.3
|
0.35
|
11.3 – 0.7
|
0.32
|
We have a new #1! Florida State jumped Oregon after their big win over
Clemson. Oregon remains a few points clear of Baylor and Alabama but are a full
two points behind Florida State. Clemson dropped out of the top 10 after being
blown out by Florida State and were replaced by Arizona State, who thumped
Washington 53 – 24.
Here are the top 14 teams in the current BCS standings and the
probability that they win all of their remaining games:
|
BCS Rank
|
Rank
|
Team
|
P(WARG)
|
|
1
|
4
|
Alabama
|
0.390
|
|
2
|
1
|
Florida State
|
0.780
|
|
3
|
2
|
Oregon
|
0.511
|
|
4
|
10
|
Ohio State
|
0.318
|
|
5
|
8
|
Missouri
|
0.065
|
|
6
|
9
|
Stanford
|
0.059
|
|
7
|
17
|
Miami
|
0.004
|
|
8
|
3
|
Baylor
|
0.551
|
|
9
|
11
|
Clemson
|
0.276
|
|
10
|
31
|
Texas Tech
|
0.004
|
|
11
|
24
|
Auburn
|
0.021
|
|
12
|
14
|
UCLA
|
0.001
|
|
13
|
5
|
LSU
|
0.175
|
|
14
|
28
|
Virginia Tech
|
0.006
|
It has been clear for a while that the major contenders are Florida
State, Oregon, Alabama, Ohio State and Baylor. Four of those teams compose the
top four in the BCS standings. All four have at least a 30% chance of finishing
undefeated with Oregon and Florida State in the best shape. Baylor continues to
get no respect due to their schedule but has a better chance of finishing
undefeated than everyone but Florida State and Oregon. They will presumably
jump Stanford if they keep winning but it will be interesting to see where they
end up if more than two teams finish undefeated.
This week’s games are not as exciting as the last few weeks. UCLA vs.
Oregon features two top 15 teams but is not expected to be a close game. The
best game of the weekend is South Carolina at Missouri, which also features two
top 15 teams, with Missouri favored by about a touchdown. Here are a few games
to keep an eye on:
- #15 (in my rankings) South Carolina @ #8 Missouri, Missouri favored by 6.6, 68% chance of winning
- #14 UCLA @ #2 Oregon, Oregon favored by 19.1, 92% chance of winning
- #9 Stanford @ #26 Oregon State, Stanford favored by 4.8, 64% chance of winning
- #31 Texas Tech @ #23 Oklahoma, Oklahoma favored by 5.5, 66% chance of winning
As always, full rankings can be found at my faculty webpage:
Enjoy the week 9!
