Thursday, October 25, 2012

Week 8 Rankings



Hi football fans. I hope you enjoyed the weekend! I’m sure you did if you’re a fan of Florida or Kansas State. Both teams flexed their muscles with big victories over South Carolina and West Virginia, respectively. Elsewhere, Notre Dame kept their dream of a perfect season alive with a hard-fought 17-14 victory over BYU.

 Here is my updated top 10:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

E(FR)

P(WARG)
1
Alabama
32.55
7-0
11.57 – 0.43
0.487
2
Oklahoma
27.95
5-1
10.13 – 1.87
0.386
3
Oregon
27.32
7-0
11.25 – 0.75
0.332
4
Florida State
24.38
7-1
10.38 – 1.62
0.451
5
Kansas State
23.72
7-0
10.84 – 1.16
0.264
6
Florida
23.25
7-0
10.95 – 1.05
0.065
7
South Carolina
20.83
6-2
9.32 – 2.68
0.425
8
Texas A&M
20.64
5-2
8.57 – 3.43
0.072
9
Notre Dame
20.32
7-0
10.55 – 1.45
0.086
10
LSU
19.96
7-1
9.75 – 2.25
0.094

The Top 10 remains SEC-centric with 5 of the top 10 coming from the SEC. At this point, Alabama appears to be far and away the best team in the country and is at least 4.5 points better than every other team in the country. South Carolina and Texas A&M are still ranked surprisingly high at 6 and 7, respectively. Texas A&M is the more understandable of the two as their only two losses were close games against Florida and LSU. It’s surprising that South Carolina was hurt more by their shellacking at the hands of the Gators but they still have a big victory against Georgia (#11) to hang their hat on.

Here are the top 14 in the initial BCS rankings along with the probability that they win all remaining games:


BCS Rank

Rank

Team

P(WARG)
1
1
Alabama
0.487
2
6
Florida
0.065
3
5
Kansas State
0.264
4
3
Oregon
0.332
5
9
Notre Dame
0.086
6
10
LSU
0.094
7
25
Oregon State
0.004
8
2
Oklahoma
0.386
9
11
USC
0.026
10
13
Georgia
0.104
11
26
Mississippi State
~0.000
12
4
Florida State
0.451
13
7
South Carolina
0.425
14
15
Texas Tech
0.044

Alabama continues to roll along and now have almost a 50% chance of finishing the season undefeated. Kansas State and Oregon are also in good shape with a 26% and 33% chance of finishing undefeated. Florida and Notre Dame have tougher roads ahead of them. Florida still has Georgia, Florida State and a potential SEC Championship game against Alabama on the schedule, while Notre Dame still has to play road games at Oklahoma and USC. I currently have Notre Dame as an eleven point underdog against Oklahoma. A win this weekend would substantially improve their probability of finishing undefeated.

Most people are looking ahead to next weekend when Alabama plays LSU and Oregon plays USC but this weekend could be epic. Four of the top five in the BCS face major tests with Alabama playing undefeated Mississippi State (#26 in my rankings), Florida playing Georgia (#10) in the game formerly known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, Kansas State plays Texas Tech (#15) and Notre Dame is actually an underdog on the road against Oklahoma (#2). It should be a fun weekend!

Full ranking can be found at my personal website: http://www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/index.php?page=sports

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Week 7 Rankings



Hi football fans. I’m sure you’re all thrilled for the first BCS rankings of the season! What? No? Look on the bright side. At least you only have to deal with the it for two more years.  

There were several big games over the weekend with national championship implications. LSU ended South Carolina’s run at finishing undefeated with a  23-21 victory, while Notre Dame kept the dream alive for another week thanks to an overtime goal line stand against Stanford. Elsewhere, Texas Tech likely ended any chance West Virginia had at playing for a national title with a 49-14 beat-down and Oklahoma reminded everyone that they’re still pretty good at football by beating Texas 63-21 in the Red River Rivalry. Here is my updated top 10:


Rank

Team

Rating

Record

E(FR)

P(WARG)
1
Alabama
31.57
6-0
11.46 – 0.54
0.424
2
Oklahoma
26.84
4-1
9.87 – 2.13
0.281
3
Oregon
25.74
6-0
10.87 – 1.13
0.199
4
Florida State
24.80
6-1
10.34 – 1.66
0.435
5
South Carolina
24.06
6-1
10.02 – 1.98
0.174
6
Notre Dame
21.30
6-0
10.54 – 1.46
0.106
7
Texas A&M
20.66
5-1
9.24 – 2.76
0.038
8
Florida
20.03
6-0
10.09 – 1.91
0.012
9
Kansas State
19.75
6-0
9.91 – 2.09
0.070
10
Georgia
19.67
5-1
10.03 – 1.97
0.164

Alabama continues to look very impressive and has opened up a five point gap between themselves and the second best team in the country. To put their performance in perspective, Alabama would be favored by at least eight points at home against every team in the country. Oklahoma fell off the map thanks to an early loss to Kansas State but have looked the part of an elite team with four blow out victories. The rest of the top ten looks pretty similar to last week. The SEC is heavily represented with four teams in the top 10 (Alabama, South Carolina, Florida and Georgia), while the Big 12 is the only other conference with more than one team in the top 10 (Oklahoma and Kansas State).

Here are the top 14 in the initial BCS rankings along with the probability that they win all remaining games:


BCS Rank

Rank

Team

P(WARG)
1
1
Alabama
0.424
2
8
Florida
0.012
3
3
Oregon
0.199
4
9
Kansas State
0.070
5
6
Notre Dame
0.106
6
12
LSU
0.031
7
5
South Carolina
0.174
8
29
Oregon State
0.001
9
2
Oklahoma
0.281
10
13
USC
0.034
11
10
Georgia
0.164
12
32
Mississippi State
0.000
13
24
West Virginia
0.008
14
4
Florida State
0.435

Alabama is in great shape with a 42% chance of winning out. Florida is being bill as having the inside track but it will be very difficult for them to reach the title game. They still have regular season games against South Carolina, Georgia and Florida State and an undefeated regular season would mean a date with Alabama (most likely) in the SEC title game. Obviously, Alabama made the title game with a loss last season but it is extremely unlikely that the SEC runner-up would make the title game after losing the SEC championship. Looking down the rankings a bit, Oklahoma and Florida State are two interesting dark-horses. My rankings like their chances of winning out and four SEC teams in front of Oklahoma and six in front of Florida State, they both have potential to move up the rankings if they continue to win.

There are several top match-ups on the schedule for this weekend highlighted by South Carolina at Florida. Two other good match-ups are Kansas State at West Virginia and LSU at Texas A&M. I actually have the Aggies favored over LSU and it will be interesting to see if they’re as good as the rankings seem to think they are.

Full ranking can be found at my personal website: http://www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/index.php?page=sports