Week 13 Rankings

 

Hey football fans. I hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving! The season is almost over and, from the sound of it, the national title game is pretty much decided but there are still a few things to talk about.

Last weekend was the end of the regular season for most of college football. Number 1 LSU finished their regular season in convincing fashion with a 41-17 win over Arkansas. Elsewhere, Alabama posted a comfortable victory over Auburn, Stanford defeated Notre Dame 28-14 and Virginia Tech and Oregon clinched their respective divisions with victories over in-state rivals Virginia and Oregon State. Here is my updated top 10 heading into championship weekend:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	SOS1	SOS2	E(FR)	P(WARG)
1	LSU	30.1	12-0	5.2	0.04	12.8-0.17	0.83
2	Alabama	27.9	11-1	1.2	0.16	RSC	RSC
3	Oregon	26.4	10-2	3.5	0.07	11.0-2.0	0.99
4	Oklahoma	26.1	9-2	6.4	0.08	9.4-2.6	0.43
5	Wisconsin	25.5	10-2	-1.5	0.27	10.8-2.2	0.77
6	Stanford	25.4	11-1	3.0	0.19	RSC	RSC
7	Oklahoma State	25.3	10-1	5.7	0.11	10.6-1.4	0.57
8	Boise State	20.8	10-1	-5.3	0.48	11-1	~1.0
9	Florida State	17.8	8-4	-0.2	0.28	RSC	RSC
10	USC	17.8	10-2	6.1	0.07	RSC	RSC

Again, the top 8 have been the same for much of the season. Florida State moved back into the top 10 after defeating Florida and USC makes their first appearance after posting an impressive victory over UCLA. The Trojans have looked as impressive as any team in college football over the last month but are ineligible for a bowl game due the Reggie Bush scandal.  

It sounds as if the BCS title game is going to be an LSU/Alabama rematch regardless of what happens this weekend but there is still meaningful football to be played including four championship games in BCS conference games and a de facto championship game in the Big 12. Here are the lines for the six conference championship games and the Bedlam Game, which serves as the de facto Big 12 Championship game:

Game	Favorite	Underdog	Line	P(Upset)
SEC Championship	LSU	Georgia	13.4	0.17
Pac 12 Championship	Oregon*	UCLA	31.0	0.01
ACC Championship	Virginia Tech	Clemson	6.1	0.33
Big 10 Championship	Wisconsin	Michigan State	10.6	0.23
Bedlam Game	Oklahoma State*	Oklahoma	2.5	0.43
Conference USA Championship	Houston	Southern Mississippi	12.7	0.19
MAC Championship	Northern Illinois	Ohio	3.9	0.39

*Home team, all other games are played at neutral sites

As you can see, it’s certainly not a sure thing that LSU will beat Georgia. That said, LSU will play for the national championship unless they lose badly on Saturday and that is only fair because they would still have the best resume in the country even if they lost on Saturday to finish 12-1. It looks like the most interesting game of the weekend should be the Bedlam Game between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. It doesn’t sound like Oklahoma State has much of a chance to play for the national title even if they win but I’m not sure why? Sure, the loss to Iowa State was terrible but a win on Saturday would give them victories against Oklahoma (#4 in my rankings), Texas A&M (#12), Missouri (#19), Texas (#21), Baylor (#31) and Kansas State (#34). In contrast, Alabama’s only good win is against Arkansas (#13) but they didn’t play Georgia or South Carolina, which means that their second best win was against either Florida (#27) or Penn State (#33). This is not to say that Oklahoma State is clearly better than Alabama, in fact, Alabama is probably better than Oklahoma State, but they’re pretty close and I would be inclined to give the nod to Oklahoma State should they win on Saturday due to their schedule and because they will have won their conference. It will be interesting to see what happens when the match-ups are announced.

Finally, most of the bowl matchups will be announced on Sunday but I won’t post my bowl preview until after the Army/Navy game, which is in two weeks.

As always, the full ranking can be found at my personal website: www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk13_rankings_2011.pdf

Week 12 Rankings

Well then, that’s not how it was supposed to go. As I’m sure you know, the college football world was thrown into a tizzy after national title contenders Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Oregon and Clemson all lost, increasing the likelihood of a somewhat unsatisfying BCS championship game rematch between division rivals LSU and Alabama. Here is my updated top 10 after last weekend’s carnage:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	SOS1	SOS2	E(FR)	P(WARG)
1	LSU	29.3	11-0	3.9	0.06	11.9-0.1	0.70
2	Alabama	27.2	10-1	1.0	0.16	10.9-1.1	0.92
3	Oklahoma	27.1	8-2	6.5	0.08	9.4-2.6	0.44
4	Oregon	26.3	9-2	3.8	0.08	10.0-2.0	0.87
5	Oklahoma State	25.4	10-1	5.9	0.10	10.6-0.4	0.55
6	Stanford	25.1	10-1	2.8	0.20	10.8-1.2	0.69
7	Wisconsin	24.2	9-2	-2.8	0.35	9.9-2.1	0.79
8	Boise State	21.9	9-1	-5.2	0.48	11.0-1.0	~1.0
9	Texas A&M	18.3	6-5	5.9	0.07	6.7-5.3	0.72
10	Michigan	17.6	9-2	2.0	0.28	9.8-2.2	0.74

The top 8 have remained the same for much of the season and are joined this week by Texas A&M and Michigan, who replaced Florida State and Georgia in the top 10. Michigan has played well all season and is underrated by the national media but it is surprising to see Texas A&M in the top 10. A closer look at their results, though, suggests that they are probably better than their record suggests. Five of their six wins were by two touchdowns or more, while their five losses include two overtime losses, a one point loss to Oklahoma State and a four point loss to Arkansas. Furthermore, they were dominating the Oklahoma State and Arkansas games at the half only to blow big halftime lead. I’m not convinced that they’re truly a top ten team but they’re certainly better than they are getting credit for.

Here are the top 14 teams from this week’s BCS rankings along with the probability that they win all of their remaining games:

BCS Rank	Rank	Team	P(WARG)
1	1	LSU	0.703
2	2	Alabama	0.917
3	12	Arkansas	0.126
4	5	Oklahoma State	0.555
5	23	Virginia Tech	0.416
6	6	Stanford	0.694
7	8	Boise State	0.995
8	16	Houston	0.531
9	3	Oklahoma	0.440
10	4	Oregon	0.871
11	35	Kansas State	0.818
12	21	South Carolina	0.712
13	14	Georgia	0.121
14	18	Michigan State	0.326

 Who knows what’s going to happen over the last two weeks of the season? Of course, it may not matter as everything I’ve read suggests that we’ll see an LSU vs. Alabama rematch unless something really wacky happens. Strangely enough, Alabama is probably in a better position than LSU. They have a 92% chance of beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl and only have to worry about the SEC Championship game if LSU loses to Arkansas and drops below number 2 in the BCS standings. LSU, on the other hand, has a tough game against Arkansas and, if they win (maybe even if they lose, too), a second tough game against Georgia in the SEC Championship game. They only have a 70% chance of winning both games but could probably survive one loss but not two. Arkansas, of course, could also play their way in but would need a win over LSU on Friday, Alabama to drop out of the top 2 in the BCS standings and a win over Georgia in the SEC Championship game. That second part, in particular, doesn’t seem likely to me. Finally, Oklahoma State is the only other team that has any reasonable chance of making the championship game but that would require a victory over Oklahoma in the Bedlam game first. I have they favored but they only have a 56% chance of winning.

This is one of my favorite weekends of the football season if for no other reason than the ridiculous names for rivalry games. I’ve already mentioned the Iron Bowl and the Bedlam Game (which is next weekend) but some of my other favorites include Civil War, Apple Cup, Egg Bowl, Backyard Brawl and Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate. That last one might be my favorite ridiculous rivalry game nickname. Happy Thanksgiving!

As always, the full ranking can be found at my personal website: www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk12_rankings_2011.pdf