Week 8 Rankings

Hey football fans!

Last weekend brought us the first major shakeup of the college football season thanks to Texas Tech, who upset Oklahoma 41-38, and Michigan State, who upset Wisconsin 37-31. Elsewhere, Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma State and Stanford continued to roll, Clemson and Kansas State continued to prove me wrong and Boise State had an unexpected close game against Air Force.  My updated top 10 can be found below:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	SOS1	SOS2	E(FR)	P(WARG)
1	Alabama	30.5	8-0	1.8	0.13	11.4-0.6	0.41
2	LSU	30.1	8-0	5.2	0.04	11.3-0.7	0.30
3	Stanford	28.5	7-0	2.2	0.20	11.2-0.8	0.30
4	Oregon	28.2	6-1	4.3	0.05	10.2-1.8	0.27
5	Oklahoma	26.3	6-1	5.7	0.09	10.0-2.0	0.28
6	Boise State	24.9	7-0	-5.4	0.45	11.7-0.3	0.76
7	Wisconsin	24.2	6-1	-3.0	0.32	10.4-1.6	0.40
8	Oklahoma State	23.9	7-0	5.3	0.11	11.2-0.8	0.34
9	Texas A&M	19.3	5-2	5.8	0.08	8.5-3.5	0.10
10	Florida State	17.9	4-3	0.51	0.21	8.1-3.9	0.33

Oklahoma dropped 3 spots in the rankings and saw their rating drop by over 3 points thanks to their loss to Texas Tech. In contrast, Wisconsin remains at number 7 after their loss to Michigan State, although, their rating did drop a point and a half. This may come as a bit of a surprise but Michigan State is a solid team, as compared to Texas Tech, who is very mediocre. Finally, Notre Dame dropped out of the top 10 after losing at home to USC and were replaced by Florida State.

Here are the top 14 teams from the initial BCS rankings along with the probability that they win all of their remaining games:

BCS Rank	Rank	Team	P(WARG)
1	2	LSU	0.299
2	1	Alabama	0.413
3	8	Oklahoma State	0.339
4	6	Boise State	0.758
5	21	Clemson	0.074
6	3	Stanford	0.297
7	4	Oregon	0.271
8	38	Kansas State	0.001
9	5	Oklahoma	0.281
10	17	Arkansas	0.021
11	16	Michigan State	0.103
12	23	Virginia Tech	0.162
13	15	South Carolina	0.044
14	26	Nebraska	0.020

Oklahoma State certainly benefitted from the two big upsets of the weekend but, in my opinion, the big winner was Stanford. Yes, Oklahoma State moved up to number 3 but they were always going to play for the national title as long as they went undefeated. In that sense, nothing has changed since last week. On the other hand, Stanford needed a lot of help even if they went undefeated. It’s now a lot less likely that the Big 12 champ will finish the season undefeated and the Tree no longer have to worry about how they stack up against Wisconsin. They still need some help but the path to the BCS title game looks a lot clearer this week than it did a week ago.

Alabama and LSU have off this week leading up to their battle royale on November 5. Among the national title contenders, Oklahoma State plays a potentially tricky game against Baylor, while Stanford plays an underrated USC team coming off a big victory against Notre Dame. Finally, two undefeated teams that have not impressed the rankings, Clemson and Kansas State, face tough tests in Georgia Tech and Oklahoma, respectively.

As always, the full ranking can be found at my personal website: www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk8_rankings_2011.pdf

Week 7 Rankings

Hey football fans! Last weekend was short on drama but we did get the first BCS rankings of the year, which means that the race is on to see who will play in the national title game.

The top 10 weren’t really tested over the weekend with only Oklahoma State and Oregon facing top 25 opponents. Neither team won in a blowout but both posted comfortable wins with Oklahoma State defeating Texas 38-26 and Oregon defeating Arizona State 41-27. Elsewhere, 13 teams entered last weekend undefeated but, as I noted, five had very little chance of finishing the season undefeated. On cue, three of those five, Michigan, Illinois and Georgia Tech, suffered their first losses of the season to Michigan State, Ohio State and Virginia, respectively. My updated top 10 can be found below:

Rank	Team	Rating	Record	SOS1	SOS2	E(FR)	P(WARG)
1	Alabama	29.8	7-0	1.7	0.14	11.4-0.6	0.38
2	Oklahoma	29.6	6-0	5.6	0.10	11.3-0.7	0.43
3	LSU	29.5	7-0	5.2	0.04	11.2-0.8	0.28
4	Stanford	27.0	6-0	2.0	0.24	11.1-0.9	0.28
5	Boise State	26.8	6-0	-5.5	0.49	11.8-0.2	0.82
6	Oregon	26.7	5-1	3.7	0.07	10.2-1.8	0.27
7	Wisconsin	25.8	6-0	-3.1	0.35	11.3-0.7	0.36
8	Oklahoma State	22.6	6-0	5.4	0.09	10.7-1.3	0.16
9	Texas A&M	20.3	4-2	6.2	0.07	8.5-3.5	0.08
10	Notre Dame	18.9	4-2	6.1	0.12	8.7-3.3	0.12

There was a little reshuffling but, for all intents and purposes, the top 10 remains unchanged from last week.

Here are the top 14 teams from the initial BCS rankings along with the probability that they win all of their remaining games:

BCS Rank	Rank	Team	P(WARG)
1	3	LSU	0.282
2	1	Alabama	0.383
3	2	Oklahoma	0.427
4	8	Oklahoma State	0.157
5	5	Boise State	0.816
6	7	Wisconsin	0.362
7	22	Clemson	0.049
8	4	Stanford	0.278
9	12	Arkansas	0.031
10	6	Oregon	0.265
11	46	Kansas State	< .001
12	23	Virginia Tech	0.134
13	25	Nebraska	0.009
14	17	South Carolina	0.038

As it stands, the SEC champion and Big 12 champion would play for the national title if they finish the season undefeated. It’s difficult to predict whether or not it will stay this way (especially if Oklahoma State goes undefeated) but this appears to be the preferred scenario for fans outside of Madison, Palo Alto and Boise. As usual, there is some angst over the initial Wisconsin/Clemson/Stanford ordering but, unlike the polls, a team can jump teams ranked ahead of them in the computer rankings even if the higher ranked team doesn’t lose and fans should wait for more of the season to play out before getting too upset. Furthermore, all three are more likely to lose a game than not and the ordering is irrelevant if they don’t finish the season undefeated. Finally, Boise State enters the initial BCS rankings at number 5 but it’s pretty well known that they will finish behind an undefeated conference champ from any of the BCS conferences. What’s not known is how they stack up against a one-loss conference champ from one of the BCS conferences. They would almost certainly finish behind a one-loss SEC champ but time will tell how they stack up against a one-loss Big 12, Big 10, Pac 12 or ACC champ.

Wisconsin and Oklahoma State face difficult road tests on Saturday at Michigan State (#19) and Missouri (#15), respectively. Missouri isn’t getting any respect from the pollsters. We’ll see if they can prove me right and give Oklahoma State a game. Elsewhere, LSU faces what the polls perceive as a difficult test against Auburn but my rankings have Auburn ranked number 38 and predict a relatively easy victory for LSU.

As always, the full ranking can be found at my personal website: www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk7_rankings_2011.pdf