Thursday, October 28, 2010

Week 8 Rankings

Down goes #1… again. The number #1 ranked team in the nation lost for the third week in a row. Although, there weren’t many people that actually thought that Oklahoma was the best team in the country (I had them ranked #5) and my rankings had Oklahoma favored by only 1.5 points in Columbia. Auburn gets their chance as the new BCS number 1 after defeating previously unbeaten LSU, 24-17. The streak should end this week as Auburn faces Mississippi. The Rebels aren’t on the same level as South Carolina, Wisconsin or Missouri. Speaking of Mississippi, Houston Nutt has to be a little disappointed in his return on investment after recruiting frequent resident of the back seat of a police car, Jeremiah Masoli. Oh well, at least Mississippi has a cool new mascot:


The only new additions to the top 10 are Utah, who beat Colorado State 59-6, and Miami, who posted a 33-10 victory over North Carolina. Stanford and Iowa dropped out of the top 10, dropping to #14 and #11, respectively. Stanford was penalized for allowing Washington State to keep it close. The Cougars have improved quite a bit from last year even though they’re ranked #94. This illustrates just how bad they were in 2008 and 2009 when they were one of the worst teams in the country. This year, they’re not even the worst team in a BCS conference thanks to Turner Gill’s Kansas Jayhawks. I doubt that makes Cougar fans feel any better but I’m a Washington alum and don’t care.

Here are the top 14 teams in the BCS rankings and the probability that they win all of their remaining games:

BCS Rank Rank Team P(WARG)*
1 15 Auburn 0.059
2 1 Oregon 0.449
3 2 Boise State 0.830
4 3 TCU 0.538
5 26 Michigan State 0.152
6 13 Missouri 0.123
7 4 Alabama 0.386
8 6 Utah 0.214
9 7 Oklahoma 0.166
10 18 Wisconsin 0.546
11 5 Ohio State 0.466
12 20 LSU 0.087
13 14 Stanford 0.125
14 8 Nebraska 0.266
*P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.


We’re down to seven undefeated teams and only four from BCS conferences. Believe it or not but Auburn has the worst chance of finishing the season undefeated among the seven unbeatens. They’ll be solid favorites in their next three games but finish the season with Alabama and (potentially) the SEC championship game. Oregon has tough games remaining against USC, Arizona and Oregon State but still has a 45% chance of finishing the season undefeated. I’ve always assumed that Michigan State would lose a game before all was said and done but they only have four games remaining and three of those games are against Purdue, Minnesota and Penn State. Michigan State has a very real chance of running the table if they beat Iowa on Saturday. Ditto for Missouri. Their only remaining test during the regular season is Saturday’s game at Nebraska. Although, they would also have to win the Big 12 title game, likely against Oklahoma, to finish undefeated. Finally, Boise State and the TCU/Utah winner are likely to finish the season undefeated (83% and 75%, respectively) but need some help if they want to play for the national title. Missouri and Michigan State are likely to lose before the end of the season but Boise State/TCU/Utah need the SEC champ to have more than one loss in order to have a shot. That could be tough given that three teams in the SEC West have one loss or less (Alabama, Auburn and LSU) and the relative weakness of the SEC East.
Full week 8 rankings can be found at my personal website:

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Week 7 Rankings

Hey college football fans! Week 7 is behind us and you know what that means? Yep, the first BCS rankings of the season are out. I, for one, am pumped to hear about the grave injustices of the BCS instead of all the complaining about trivial issues like health care and the economy.

Wisconsin knocked off previously undefeated Ohio State, 31-18, in the biggest game of the weekend. Nebraska and Nevada also dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten with losses to Texas and Hawaii, respectively. The most surprising result of the weekend, though, was probably Auburn’s 65-43 victory over Arkansas. Yep, you read that right, 65-43. Cam Newton single handedly set SEC defenses back decades in one weekend (not to mention making himself a leading Heisman candidate). It will be fun to see if he can keep it up!

There was very little change in the top 10 from last week. The order changed a little but only Utah dropped out of the top 10 (to #11), while Iowa was the only team to enter the top 10 (moving up from #12). Oregon remains #1 but #2 Boise State is now a full field goal ahead of #3 TCU.

Here are the top 14 teams in the BCS rankings and the probability that they win all of their remaining games:

BCS Rank Rank Team P(WARG)*
1 5 Oklahoma 0.128
2 1 Oregon 0.409
3 2 Boise State 0.849
4 14 Auburn 0.044
5 3 TCU 0.517
6 17 LSU 0.034
7 27 Michigan State 0.116
8 4 Alabama 0.291
9 11 Utah 0.128
10 6 Ohio State 0.385
11 13 Missouri 0.048
12 7 Stanford 0.229
13 21 Wisconsin 0.159
14 26 Oklahoma State 0.014
* P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.

Don’t get too attached to/upset about this week’s BCS rankings. As you can see from column four, there will be plenty of changes before the end of the season. Boise State is the only team that we can say is likely to win all of their remaining games (85% chance) and there is a good chance that the Mountain West champion will finish the season undefeated (65% chance). Of course, there is virtually no chance that they will meet in the national title game even if they are the only undefeated teams remaining at the end of the season. Oregon has the best chance of finishing the season undefeated among BCS conference teams (41%). No other BCS conference team has more than a 13% chance of finishing the season undefeated. Finally, Alabama is an interesting team at #8 in the BCS rankings. They have a 29% chance of winning all of their remaining games and would likely move up considerably as the teams ranked ahead of them lose. It would be surprising if Alabama didn’t end up in the National Championship game if they finish the season 12-1.
Full week 7 rankings can be found at my personal website:

Friday, October 15, 2010

Week 6 Rankings

Hey college football fans! It’s that time of year again. The leaves are changing, conference play has begun and the first BCS rankings come out on Sunday! Okay, only two of those are a good thing. I’ll leave it for you to decide which two I’m referring too!

Last weekend brought us the first set of big conference matchups. The biggest story was South Carolina’s 35-21 victory over Alabama. This makes it very unlikely that the SEC champion will finish the season undefeated. The SEC has garnered a lot of respect over the last few seasons and it will be interesting to see how the BCS rankings treat a one-loss SEC champion. The two remaining SEC unbeatens, Auburn and LSU, posted victories over Kentucky and Florida, respectively. The second most impressive victory of the weekend was turned in by Florida State, who put a whoopin’ on Miami, 45-17. The rankings have been optimistic about Florida State all season but this was definitely a surprise. Finally, Michigan State dealt Michigan their first loss of the season, 34 – 17. Somewhere, University of Washington biostatistics graduate student and Michigan alum Peter Chi was crying.

The Florida State/Miami game actually had a larger effect on the rankings than the South Carolina/Alabama game. Alabama only dropped one spot to #3. Some might find this hard to swallow but remember, I’m trying to identify the best team in the country and not trying to reward teams for a good season. Would you really bet on South Carolina over Alabama if they played a rematch? Yeah, I wouldn’t either. Florida State and Miami essentially flip-flopped this week. Last week, Miami was ranked #6 and Florida State was ranked #13. This week, Florida State is ranked #7 and Miami is ranked #14. Finally, Florida and Iowa slid just out of the top 10 and were replaced by Nebraska and Utah.

Here are the 13 remaining unbeatens ranked by the probability that they go undefeated:

P(WARG)* Rank Rank Team P(WARG)*
1 2 Boise State 0.808
2 4 TCU 0.467
3 1 Oregon 0.397
4 5 Ohio State 0.306
5 6 Nebraska 0.171
6 10 Utah 0.163
7 27 Michigan State 0.069
8 11 LSU 0.055
9 9 Oklahoma 0.048
10 36 Nevada 0.021
11 19 Missouri 0.017
12 22 Auburn 0.009
13 30 Oklahoma State 0.005
* P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.

The first BCS rankings of the year come out on Sunday and, in that spirit, I present three storylines that I’ll be following over the remainder of the season.

1. There are several BCS conference teams that could finish the season undefeated but only Oregon and Ohio State have at least a 30% chance of finishing undefeated and Nebraska is the only other BCS conference team with better than a 7% chance of finishing undefeated. It will be interesting to see A) how the BCS rankings will sort out the non-BCS conference teams and B) how the BCS rankings will rank one-loss conference champions from BCS conferences compared to undefeated conference champs from non-BCS conferences.

2. There is only a 6.5% chance that the SEC champion finishes the season undefeated. It will be interesting to see how the BCS rankings treat a one-loss SEC champion.

3. Ohio State and Michigan State don’t play this season and could both finish the season undefeated. What would happen if they end the season as the only undefeated team from a BCS conference? Would they play for the national title?

Full week 6 rankings can be found at my personal website:
www.biostat.umn.edu/~josephk/wk6_ranking_report.pdf

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 5 Rankings

Hey college football fans! I apologize for not posting the rankings last week. It turns out that work + a 3 month old = a very busy Joe. I’ll do my best to get these up earlier starting next week.

What have we learned in the last two weeks? Quite a bit, actually. Alabama and Oregon are awesome, Boise State is very good but no one cares because they play in the WAC, Florida doesn’t know how to play offense, Texas and USC aren’t very good this year and Les Miles is still Les Miles. Exciting stuff, huh?

The rankings haven’t changed much over the last two weeks. Oregon is still number 1, followed by Alabama and Boise State. Ohio State and TCU switched places and are now ranked numbers 4 and 5, respectively. Miami (#6) and Iowa (#8) are the only teams to move into the top 10 due to good performances after early losses, while Nebraska and LSU dropped out of the top 10. Nebraska was hurt by a very mediocre performance in a victory over the South Dakota State Jackrabbits and LSU has the notable handicap of being coached by Les Miles. Rounding out the top 10 are Stanford, Florida and Oklahoma.

Here are the top 15 teams ranked by the probability that they go undefeated:


P(WARG)* Rank Rank Team P(WARG)*
1 3 Boise State 0.787
2 1 Oregon 0.599
3 5 TCU 0.506
4 2 Alabama 0.369
5 4 Ohio State 0.270
6 11 Nebraska 0.096
7 16 Utah 0.074
8 10 Oklahoma 0.066
9 30 Nevada 0.037
10 33 Michigan State 0.012
11 22 Missouri 0.011
12 12 LSU 0.006
13 27 Oklahoma State 0.006
14 15 Arizona 0.005
15 20 Auburn 0.005
* P(WARG) = Probability of Winning All Remaining Games.


Not much changed here. Boise State, Oregon and TCU are all in good shape to go undefeated. Although, any chance that Boise State and TCU would play for the national title ahead of an undefeated team from a BCS conference were put to rest when the pollsters jumped Oregon ahead of Boise State over the weekend. The only meaningful change in the last two weeks is that Alabama cleared two meaningful hurdles in Florida and Arkansas and now have a much better chance of going undefeated. Alabama is still likely to get tripped up along with way with games against South Carolina, LSU, Auburn and the SEC championship game but beating Arkansas and Florida was a good start.   

Full week 5 rankings can be found at my personal website: